Auto File-Ford’s favorite pickup line
July 23 -By Nick Carey, European Autos Correspondent
Greetings from London!
For decades, things in the automotive industry changed at a sedate pace with incremental improvements in combustion engine products and where the future remain relatively predictable.
In the last few years, we have become used to the opposite and the pace of change is, at times, enough to give you whiplash.
At the high watermark less than two years ago, global automakers had committed to invest $1.2 trillion by 2030 to develop electric vehicles and the batteries and raw materials to support their production.
Some automakers laid out bold plans to go all electric by 2030 in Europe, France’s Renault among them, five years before the European Union’s 2035 ban on sales of fossil-fuel cars goes into effect.
But weak demand for EVs this year has dented legacy automakers’ ambitious plans and, prodded by investors, they are in retreat.
Just this week, Renault’s CEO Luca de Meo called for a little more flexibility in the EU’s timeline for going electric, saying the automaker needed more time to lower EV production costs.
While demand for EVs has slowed, last week Renault said its first-half sales performance was driven by hybrids. Volvo said it will invest more in hybrids for customers not ready to take the leap and go all electric.
Porsche also this week backed off its target of 80% all-electric sales by 2030, saying the transition would take longer than expected.
But new entrants like China’s BYD show no sign or intention of slowing their EV roll. As part of an aggressive expansion plan in Vietnam, for instance, BYD says it will double its initial lineup in that market to six EV models from October and plans up to 100 dealers in Vietnam by 2026.
Also, the world’s No. 7 auto supplier Forvia has announced it will work with BYD at the Chinese automaker’s plant in Hungary as it builds its presence in Europe.
Ford’s safe Canadian bet on pickups
Ford is another legacy company pulling back from previous bold EV production plans.
The Detroit automaker has dropped plans to build electric SUVs with three rows of seats at its Oakville Assembly facility in Canada, saying it will spend $3 billion to build larger versions of its money-making F-Series Super Duty pickups instead.
Ford has already delayed the launch of the electric SUV to 2027 from 2025, citing slower than expected growth in EV demand. The automaker says it will still make those EVs starting in 2027, but not where they will now be built.
The company lost nearly $4.7 billion on its EV business in 2023 and has said it will lose up to $5.5 billion this year.
The decision in Canada takes Ford back to its sweet spot, making highly popular, high-margin gasoline pickup trucks that drive its profits. It is also welcome news for unions, as it should secure approximately 1,800 jobs, and create 220 additional jobs at engine and component plants.
It is not just Ford. Rival General Motors has backed off its target of having enough North American production capacity for 1 million EVs.
And while executives insist that GM is scaling up production of the Chevrolet Equinox EV and plans several new battery-powered models in the coming months, America’s No. 1 automaker’s better-than-expected second-quarter profit was driven by gas-powered pickup trucks.
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VW’s American EV dream
Facing a prolonged sales slump in China that it hopes to fix with an onslaught of electric or hybrid models by 2030, Volkswagen has set its sights on doubling its relatively low market share to 10% over the same time period.
But in interviews with Reuters, about a dozen investors and analysts were skeptical that the German automaker has the right formula to achieve a U.S. sales boom.
In their view, Volkswagen lacks a distinctive U.S. brand identity, or breakthrough product plans, in a crowded market that favors larger gas-guzzling vehicles and has proven resistant to EVs.
Volkswagen plans more than 30 battery-electric models for the U.S. market but has not provided details. What's known is Volkswagen will launch two electric models, a pickup and an SUV, in late 2026 under the Scout nameplate, a historic American off-road brand.
Investors remain to be convinced.
Volkswagen faces entrenched competitors in hybrids (Toyota, Ford) and SUVs (GM, Ford, Toyota). EV demand is waning globally but especially in the U.S., where they accounted for 8% of all sales in 2023.
As one former Volkswagen investor, who now owns Mercedes-Benz stock instead, puts it, VW's market-share goal is "hopelessly optimistic,” adding that "they (VW) don't have a recognizable niche anymore."
Meanwhile, Chinese EV maker Xpeng and VW have established project houses to accelerate the development of new EV architecture that should go into production in two years.
Serbia’s EV battery supply chain play
Serbia and the EU have signed a deal to give the bloc access to raw materials, above all lithium for EV batteries.
Mining giant Rio Tinto is keen to start mining in Serbia's Western region of Jadar and its license to develop what would be Europe's largest lithium mine has just been reinstated, more than two years after it was annulled.
The Jadar project has attracted local Serbian opposition and environmental groups, who have promised blockades of main railroads and junctions in August if the government does not cancel the project.
But Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic sees opportunities for the country to not just mine expensive lithium, which he says he would rather sell to European automakers Mercedes-Benz, VW and Stellantis for car batteries instead of their Chinese rivals.
In an interview with Germany’s Handelsblatt newspaper, Vucic said procurement deals would be contingent on the most lithium processing, and battery production, taking place in Serbia.
That message has apparently been received. Speaking to Reuters in Belgrade when the EU deal was announced, Mercedes CEO Ola Kaellenius said he would support bringing more of the battery value chain to Serbia, “possibly up to the battery cell production.”
GM shelves Cruise model without steering wheel
General Motors’ Cruise self-driving has dropped plans for its futuristic Origin vehicle, that would not have a steering wheel or other human controls, to focus instead on developing a new Chevrolet Bolt model.
In 2022, GM filed a petition with the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration to deploy up to 2,500 self-driving Origin vehicles annually without human controls like brake pedals or mirrors. The regulatory agency still has not acted on the request.
GM already temporarily halted production of its fully autonomous Cruise Origin back in November.
Cruise is also dealing with a number of investigations after an October accident in which one of its robotaxis struck a pedestrian and dragged her 20 feet, resulting in its permit to operate driverless vehicles in California being revoked.
Fast Laps
Shares in German battery maker Varta plunged as much as 80% to a record low after it said restructuring options to avert insolvency, potentially with help from Porsche , would leave shareholders with nothing.
EU tariffs on Chinese-made EVs breach global trading rules and must be corrected, an industry body representing 12 Chinese automakers told the European Commission in a hearing.
A decision by the Trump administration to sanctionChina’s Xiaomi Corp in early 2021 was the catalyst for the company’s decision to build its first electric car, according to CEO Lei Jun.
Stellantis is ready to fight for its place in Europe's EV market against strong competition from Chinese carmakers, CEO Carlos Tavares said while unveiling a new EV production line in Serbia.
SK Innovation, parent of South Korea's largest oil refiner and battery maker SK On will merge with energy affiliate SK E&S as the country’s No. 2 conglomerate undertakes a major overhaul to boost profitability.
Editing by Bernadette Baum
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