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GBPUSD


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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, EURUSD, GBPUSD

EURUSD speeds up to test 1.1100 area as debate over a bold Fed rate cut continues USDJPY hits 14-month low; BoJ awaited to give direction on rate hikes GBPUSD shifts to the upside ahead of CPI data and BoE rate decision   FOMC rate decision --> EURUSD The Fed will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT and the question is not if, but by how much it will cut interest rates.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD accelerates after bouncing off 1.3000

GBPUSD remains in positive territory Holds above short-term SMAs Stochastic head up, RSI moves horizontally GBPUSD has staged a crucial rebound off the 1.3000 key level on Wednesday, holding the short-term outlook to bullish. Currently, the pair is meeting the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3125 with the next resistance levels coming from the almost two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3265 and the peak in March 2022 at 1.3310. However, a significant tumble beneath 1.3000 coul
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Week Ahead – Fed to cut interest rates, BoE and BoJ to remain on hold

Investors are split between a 25 and 50bps Fed rate cut BoE expected to stand pat, but resume cuts in November BoJ to also stay on hold, focus to fall on future hike signals Let the Fed cuts begin Since the July US employment report, which sparked fears of recession, investors have been trying to figure out the size of the potential rate cut the Fed will deliver at its September gathering, and the moment of truth has finally come.
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Daily Comment – Dollar firms after CPI, euro awaits ECB, techs lead equities rebound

US dollar edges up after CPI report wipes out 50-bps rate cut bets Euro stuck on the backfoot in wait for ECB decision Wall Street rebound gathers pace as tech stocks rally Mixed CPI report disappoints US inflation fell to the lowest since February 2021 in August, but the bigger-than-expected drop in the headline figure was overshadowed by an acceleration in the monthly core measure.
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Daily Comment – Equities are directionless ahead of US inflation report

Mixed movements in equities as markets prepare for CPI Strong possibility for a downside surprise in inflation  US presidential debate dominates headlines Bitcoin suffers while gold and yen rally Stocks are in anticipation mode US equity indices were mixed yesterday with the Nasdaq 100 index recording another green day and the Dow Jones mimicking the European stock indices’ negative performance.
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Equities volatility jumps as sentiment turns negative – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility remains low as market digests US data prints Volatility in commodities remains low apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much higher volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is digesting last week’s US labour market data and preparing for Wednesday’s CPI report, which could play a role in determining the size of the imminent Fed rate cut.
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Daily Comment – Equities rebound but face danger from US presidential debate  

Equities turn positive, but sentiment is fragile US presidential debate today could prove market moving UK labour market data supports the pound Bitcoin gains as risk sentiment improves, gold is range-bound Stocks breathe better US equity markets recorded gains in yesterday’s session, with the Nasdaq 100 index leading the rally, and euro/dollar dropped close to 1.1030 despite the fact that most participants remain uncertain about next week’s Fed rate cut size and confus
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD on a slippery slope

 GBPUSD hovers within critical zone Stochastics and RSI lose momentum GBPUSD has lost its positive momentum after the pullback on the almost two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3265, trading within the restrictive support area of 1.3045-1.3085, which encapsulates the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward wave from 1.2300 to 1.3265. In the short term, the market could maintain downside risks if the RSI keeps moving around the neutral threshold of 50 and the stochastic continues
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Weekly Technical Outlook – EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD

ECB’s rate cut is expected with EURUSD staying below 1.1200 US CPI data may be another sign before Fed’s decision GBPUSD may plunge further if UK employment data disappoint ECB interest rate decision --> EURUSD Several important economic data releases and events may affect market sentiment in the next few days, following a gloomy week.
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Week Ahead – ECB poised to cut again, US CPI to get final say on size of Fed cut

ECB is expected to ease again, but will it be another ‘hawkish cut’? US CPI report will be the last inflation update before September FOMC UK monthly data flurry begins with employment and GDP numbers ECB to cut rates for second time The European Central Bank’s carefully choreographed rate-cutting cycle got off to an awkward start in June after last-minute data upsets.
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Daily Comment – Equities weakness lingers as focus remains on US data

Equities remain on the back foot as key US data on the menu today ADP, jobless claims and ISM Services could prove market moving Dollar’s mixed performance continues, yen benefits OPEC+ production rumours fail to push oil prices higher US data releases in the spotlight Equity markets continue to exhibit a rather unexpected fragility as second tier data like Wednesday’s JOLTs job openings resulted in another negative session in most stock indices around the globe.
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Stocks could suffer after the September Fed rate cut

US labour market data to determine the size of the first Fed rate cut History points to an increased possibility of a 50bps move Analysis reveals sizeable equities’ weakness after the initial cut Following Fed Chairman Powell's appearance at the Jackson Hole Symposium and this indirect announcement of the much-discussed Fed rate cut, the market is counting down to the September 18 meeting.
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Volatility eases across the board ahead of key US data – Volatility Watch

Euro/dollar volatility drops as market prepares for an action-packed week Volatility in commodities crashes to new lows apart from oil Stock indices and bitcoin experience much lower volatility Volatility in the main FX pairs, including euro/dollar, has eased in the past few days as the market is preparing for this week’s US labour market data releases that could play a key role in determining the size of the imminent rate cut by the Fed.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD takes a negative turn

GBPUSD starts a new bearish wave but maintains broad uptrend Technical signals reflect appetite for more selling; eyes on 1.3100   GBPUSD resumed its negative momentum during Tuesday’s early European trading hours, crossing below the steep support trendline, which had been curtailing the pullback from the two-and-a-half year high of 1.3265 over the past two trading days.
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Week Ahead – Investors brace for NFP amid Fed rate cut speculation

Traders see decent chance for 50bps Fed cut in September Powell adds extra importance to jobs data, NFP awaited BoC decides on rates, third consecutive cut is fully priced in Aussie traders lock gaze on GDP numbers   Bets for double Fed cut remain elevated Here comes another NFP week, with investors eagerly awaiting the results as they try to discern the size and pace of the Fed’s forthcoming rate cuts.
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Midweek Technical Look - GBPUSD, gold, oil

GBPUSD weakens its momentum slightly beneath the 2½-year high Gold battles with record high; still above 2,500 WTI crude oil erases some losses but has lots of room for improvement
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Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD surged to 2½-month high

GBPUSD rallies since August 8 with no bearish correction Momentum oscillators are overbought levels GBPUSD skyrocketed to another fresh almost two-and-a-half-year high of 1.3245, recorded earlier in the day. The pair is extending its buying interest, which started back in April with an impressive bullish rally after rebounding off the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.2670. Technically, the stochastic oscillator is resting in the overbought territory, while the RSI is ticking n
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Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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Technical Analysis – GBPUSD: Is the next downturn approaching?

GBPUSD’s bull run slows down near a familiar resistance area Some stability is likely; sellers need a close below 1.3188 to gain control   GBPUSD opened the week with marginal losses after its almost uninterrupted two-week rally was rejected near the key resistance trendline at 1.3229 for the third time. While the bulls are trying to make a comeback today, the RSI and Stochastic oscillator are both flatlining in the overbought zone, indicating a high risk of a downside correction
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