With the loops this economy has been through, it's all about landing
Major U.S. indexes red; Dow off ~0.6%
Utilies weakest S&P sector; Energy leads gainers
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.2%
Dollar edges down; gold slips; bitcoin up >2%; crude up >3%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~4.03%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
WITH THE LOOPS THIS ECONOMY HAS BEEN THROUGH, IT'S ALL ABOUT LANDING
Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments, believes it's all about what sort of landing the economy ultimately sees.
Will it be hard, soft, bumpy, or no landing at all?
As Doll sees it, the Fed's 50 bp rate cut has modestly increased the odds of a soft landing. However, Crossmark's baseline scenario remains a significant slowdown or mild recession.
"Any caution toward equities has admittedly been wrong or at least premature. The onset of economic weakness/recession has been delayed by the deployment of a historically large stock of excess savings," writes Doll in his latest "Deliberations."
Doll believes there are numerous risks.
He disagrees that the job of bringing inflation back to target levels is complete. However, he believes the Fed's actions have only modestly raised the odds that disinflation will end or that inflation will, in fact, reaccelerate.
Doll also says that forward earnings expectations are elevated and are almost never this robust except during the early stages of an economic recovery following corporate tax cuts, or equity market bubbles like such as that which developed in the late 1990s.
Additionally, Doll says the steps China has taken are likely to stabilize the credit impulse and prevent it from falling further, but it's an open question as to whether they will lead to a significant acceleration in credit growth. Doll thinks China's property market woes and ongoing liquidity trap point to monetary measures as "pushing on a string."
Doll's bottom line is that market remains in "'a high-risk momentum-driven bull market,' implying investors need to participate but also need to be extra judicious in equity selection, focusing primarily on earnings quality, earnings persistence, and strong free cash flow."
(Terence Gabriel)
*****
FOR MONDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
GLP-1 DRUGS COMPOUND SNACK MAKERS' WOES - CLICK HERE
PAYROLLS HANGOVER: GEOPOLITICS, UNCERTAINTIES WEIGH ON RISK APPETITE - CLICK HERE
CRUDE OIL FUTURES HEATING UP ON THE CHARTS - CLICK HERE
U.S. ELECTION: PREPARE FOR UNCERTAINTY AND VOLATILITY - CLICK HERE
REAL ESTATE TOUR: WARMING UP TO OFFICES - CLICK HERE
RISING YIELDS WEIGH, BANKS EDGE UP - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN FUTURES INCH HIGHER - CLICK HERE
US 'NO LANDING' SCENARIO LIFTS MARKETS - CLICK HERE
Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
