Russian rouble slips to its weakest against the dollar since October 2023
MOSCOW, Oct 9 (Reuters) -The Russian rouble weakened further on Wednesday, hitting its lowest against the U.S. dollar since October 2023, as sanctions risks and volatile oil outweighed increased foreign exchange sales by the state.
At 1045 GMT the rouble RUB= was down 0.5% at 97.20 against the dollar, hitting the 97 mark for the first time since October last year, LSEG data showed.
The rouble was down 0.12% against the yuan at a one-year low of 13.51, according to LSEG data. In trade on the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX), the rouble was flat at 13.65 against the yuan.
"In the event that the dollar rises to 100 roubles, the government might again increase the mandatory sale of export revenue, as it did a year earlier," said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin.
Analysts pointed to several factors behind current rouble weakness, including Oct. 12 expiration of a licence from the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), allowing commercial banks to deal with MOEX.
The licence was issued to allow banks to wind down operations with MOEX after Western sanctions on the exchange and its clearing agent, the National Clearing Centre, were introduced on June 12.
The sanctions stopped all trade in dollars and euros at MOEX, making China's yuan the most traded foreign currency in Russia. Trade in dollars and euros has shifted to the over-the-counter (OTC) market, obscuring price data.
There is concern in the market that Chinese banks providing yuan liquidity for exchange trading may pull out for compliance reasons after the OFAC licence expires.
Other factors pushing the rouble down included weaker oil prices over the August-September period, exporters withholding foreign exchange due to international transactions problems as well as growth in cross-border settlements in roubles, analysts and traders said.
Increased foreign exchange sales by the state in October are supporting the Russian currency.
One-day rouble-dollar futures, which trade on the Moscow exchange and are a guide for OTC market rates, were down 0.35% at 96.50. The central bank's official exchange rate, which it calculates using OTC data, was set at 96.10 to the dollar.
The rouble was flat at 106.17 against the euro EURRUB=, LSEG data showed.
Brent crude oil LCOc1, a global benchmark for Russia's main export, edged up 0.8% to $77.79 a barrel after plunging more than 4% in the previous session on a possible ceasefire in Middle East conflict between Hezbollah and Israel.
Reporting by Gleb Bryanski
Editing by David Goodman
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