Oil prices are not a recession signal
Nasdaq up ~0.7%, S&P 500 up ~0.3%, Dow edges red
Comm Svcs leads S&P sector gainers; Utilities weakest group
Dollar edges up; gold up ~1%; bitcoin jumps >4%; crude dips
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~4.30%
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OIL PRICES ARE NOT A RECESSION SIGNAL
Crude prices dipped on Tuesday, on a report that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will hold a meeting for a diplomatic solution to the war in Lebanon.
The decline comes after crude tumbled 6% in the prior session, its sharpest one-day drop since July 2022, after Saturday's retaliatory strike by Israel against Iran's military bypassed oil and nuclear facilities.
After peaking at nearly $130 in March 2022, crude has largely declined steadily, partially on dollar strength and worries about slowing global economies sapping demand.
But Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research in New York, points out that lower oil prices are not a recession signal and that occasional year-over-year declines are a "common feature of mid-cycle environments and not one that signals an imminent slowdown."
Colas said the real issue stems from when oil prices jump by 80% to 100% over a year and "aside from 2021's snapback, every time that has happened we've had a recession or already been in one."
(Chuck Mikolajczak)
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FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
BOFA CLIENTS POST BIGGEST U.S. EQUITY OUTFLOWS IN 8 WEEKS - CLICK HERE
WHY SMALL CAPS ARE OUTPERFORMING - CLICK HERE
TUESDAY DATA: JOLTS OF CONFIDENCE - CLICK HERE
U.S. STOCKS FLAT AFTER DATA, AHEAD OF MEGACAP EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
BENCHMARK TREASURY YIELD: CLIMBING INTO THE CLOUD - CLICK HERE
Q3 EARNINGS SEASON 'CRITICAL TEST' FOR BIG TECH - SAXO BANK - CLICK HERE
US ELECTIONS AND THE NEXT ECB RATE CUT LIVE MARKETS - CLICK HERE
STOXX INCHES UP, Q3 REPORTING STEAMS AHEAD - CLICK HERE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: HSBC BEAT AND MORE EARNINGS - CLICK HERE
RISK SPOTLIGHT SWINGS TO EARNINGS AVALANCHE - CLICK HERE
YoY change in crude prices https://tmsnrt.rs/4e3pAgx
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