Nasdaq composite: Land of confusion
U.S. equity index futures sharply higher: Nasdaq 100 up >2%
Initial claims 219k vs 230k est; Philly Fed +1.7 vs -1.0 est
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~1.3%
Dollar ~flat; gold gains; crude up >1%; bitcoin up >4%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.77%
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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: LAND OF CONFUSION
Since peaking in July, the Nasdaq Composite IXIC has seen some head spinning swings.
Traders are eyeing chart levels and measures of internal strength for evidence as to whether the scales have tipped toward a renewed advance, or a more sustained decline.
In the 49 trading days since its July 11 intraday high, the composite saw a near 16% collapse into its August 5 intraday low, a near 14% jump into its August 22 intraday high, about an 8% slide into its September 6 intraday low, and then about a 7% rally into Wednesday's intraday high.
It ended at 17,573 on Wednesday, which is still down about 6% from its record highs.
However, with e-mini Nasdaq 100 futures NQcv1 surging more than 2% in premarket trade, the composite appears poised to jump at the open, and challenge its August 22 high at 18,017.689.
Overwhelming this level can put its 18,647.448 July 10 record closing high and its 18,671.069 July 11 record intraday high back in play, along with potential for new highs.
Meanwhile, traders are also watching action in the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index.
On September 11, this measure bottomed at 46.3%. It's now back above its 10-day moving average and rising, ending Wednesday at 59.2%.
What may be critical to the potential for a renewed Nasdaq advance, however, is whether this measure can finally punch through the resistance line from its early 2023 peak as well its highs of the past two years or so.
That resistance line is now at about 74%. There are seven distinct highs which range from 68.2% to 79.2%. At a minimum, bulls will want to see the resistance line taken out to add confidence in broader Nasdaq strength.
If the composite fails shy of its hurdles and it breaks its 16,668 September 6 intraday trough, coupled with the NH/NL index violating its 46.3% September 11 low, it would instead suggest bears are tightening their grip.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
CENBANK DIVERGENCES ENDING, APART FROM JAPAN - AMUNDI - CLICK HERE
R&D PICKS IN EUROPE - CLICK HERE
MINERS DO HEAVY LIFTING AS STOXX RISES AHEAD OF BOE - CLICK HERE
STOXX EYES JUBILANT START AFTER FED'S BUMPER CUT - CLICK HERE
UK INFLATION TO KEEP BOE ON CAUTIOUS PATH - CLICK HERE
IXICNHNL09192024 https://tmsnrt.rs/3Be3evi
(Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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