China stimulus could be 'game changer' for risk assets - UBS
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CHINA STIMULUS COULD BE 'GAME CHANGER' FOR RISK ASSETS - UBS
This week's policy shift in China could be a game-changer for Chinese risk assets, says Mark Haefele, global wealth management CIO at UBS, but that remains contingent on both execution and continuation.
China's central bank on Friday lowered interest rates and injected liquidity into the banking system. On Tuesday, it unveiled its most aggressive stimulus since the pandemic.
"This week’s interest rate cuts were more aggressive than consensus expectation reflecting an easing bias to policy not seen since 2012," wrote Haefele in a daily note.
The ensuing market rally "underscores the significant shift in tone" - he added.
China-exposed European stocks such as luxury, mining and tech surged between 3%-6% on Thursday, while the STOXX 600 .STOXX hit a fresh record high on Friday morning. Chinese stocks are on track for their best weekly performance since 2008.
"Our view is the broad market can rally by another high single-digit percentage, following the near-14% move since the announcement of stimulus package," says Haefele, but it will depend on efficient execution of the government's plan, and more growth-supporting fiscal measures.
In Chinese equities, UBS recommends boosting exposure to select Chinese internet leaders.
The team also anticipates that rate cuts and capital market support will benefit state-owned
enterprises concentrated in high-dividend sectors, including utilities, telecoms, energy firms, and financials.
"For investors with Chinese government bond (CGB) exposure, we expect yields to head lower in line with the policy rate cut, though the magnitude of this move may be somewhat limited due to increasing supply."
In FX, UBS recommends investors focus on the Australian dollar AUD=D3 as a key beneficiary from China’s pro-growth measures, rather than chasing the yuan CNY=CFXS.
"Investors seeking other proxies for China upside may also look to copper - which remains our preferred metal, with prices forecast to reach USD 12,000/mt over the next 12 months," wrote the UBS CIO.
(Lucy Raitano)
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Chinese stocks roar on stimulus-fueled optimism https://reut.rs/3Bx3wx6
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