Autos: Twists and turns with U.S. election scenarios
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AUTOS: TWISTS AND TURNS WITH U.S. ELECTION SCENARIOS
With less than two months to go before the U.S. Presidential election, UBS analyst Joseph Spak was out with some research this week suggesting potential outcomes for the auto industry depending on who wins on Nov. 5. All of the outcomes he described seemed to come with some worries.
If the Democrats win, Spak says he "would expect a mostly status quo scenario for EV-related and tariff policy," which could come with out-performance in EV related stocks. But Spak said "taxes could be a headwind for the entire group" in this scenario.
But if Democrat Kamala Harris wins the White House, but end up with a mixed or Republican controlled Congress, this could make it harder to implement tax changes.
On the other side, if the Republicans win, Spak sees more potential for change. If re-elected, Donald Trump could try to undo EV tax credits and look to loosen Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) standards. He may also try to cut U.S. taxes.
If this is the case, Spak says he sees a positive initial reaction for companies with exposure to traditional internal combustion engine vehicles such as Ford, General Motors GM.N, Phinia PHIN.K, and American Axle & Manufacturing Holdings AXL.N.
But, if Trump wins and implements tariffs on all imports including from Mexico Spak says "this would be highly disruptive for the entire US automotive value chain."
And he notes that while Trump is "anti China vehicles imports (like the Dems)" he is in favor of Chinese automakers building cars in the U.S. But he says this "would also be highly disruptive to the current US auto supply complex."
On Friday shares of EV maker Tesla TSLA.O are down ~2% while GM shares are off 0.3% and F is down ~1%. AXL is down 1.4% while PHIN is up 4.7%.
(Sinéad Carew)
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