All hope is not lost for emerging market investors, says UBS
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ALL HOPE IS NOT LOST FOR EMERGING MARKET INVESTORS, SAYS UBS
As investors in developing markets gear up for four years of dealing with possible headline risk under Donald Trump's second presidency, analysts at UBS are optimistic that it won't all be bad news.
EM currencies and stocks experienced a knee-jerk selloff to Trump's win this week as the broader consensus among analysts is that the president-elect's policies could weaken and polarize economies that have enjoyed the premium of a relatively globalized world.
However, analysts at UBS expects Trump's policies to be diluted compared with his campaign rhetoric, leaving some room for opportunities in emerging market assets.
"We expect emerging markets stocks to deliver mid- to high-single-digit returns driven by earnings growth," said Alejo Czerwonko, chief investment officer at UBS Financial Services.
Taiwan has the potential to ride the wave of artificial intelligence, says UBS.
Chinese stocks .SSEC, .CSI300, while exposed to near-term risk, could see tailwinds if there is strong government fiscal support, the brokerage said.
Looking west, India's .NSEI, .BSESN neutral stance globally could work in its favor, while South Africa's .JTOPI reforms following recent elections along with attractive valuations could act as tailwinds, said UBS.
Mexico .MXX is expected to be the most vulnerable, however the brokerage says it wouldn't be long before the U.S. realises the Latin American economy's relevance in helping keep its own competitive edge and maintain steady domestic inflation.
(Johann M Cherian)
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