What to expect in 2024: Forecasts for GDP, inflation and other assets
Updates with U.S. GDP forecast from J.P.Morgan; global GDP forecast from UBS Global Research; euro area GDP forecasts from Goldman Sachs, JPM, Citigroup and UBS Global Research; core PCE forecast from Goldman
Nov 5 (Reuters) -The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by an oversized 50 basis points in its Sept. 17-18 meeting that Chair Jerome Powell said was meant to show policymakers' commitment to sustaining a low unemployment rate now that inflation had eased.
Fed policymakers also projected the benchmark interest rate would fall by another half percentage point by the end of this year, a full percentage point next year, and half a percentage point in 2026, though they cautioned that the outlook that far into the future was inherently uncertain.
Following are forecasts from some major banks on economic growth, inflation, and how they expect certain asset classes to perform:
Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds
S&P 500 target | US 10-year yield target | EUR/USD | USD/JPY | USD/CNY | |
Goldman Sachs | 6,000 | 3.85% | 1.08 | 150 | 7.20 |
Morgan Stanley | 5,400(for June 2025) | 1 | 140 | 7.5 | |
UBS Global Wealth Management* | 5,200 | 3.85% | 1.09 | 148 | 7.20 |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute (WFII) | 6,200-6,400 (year-end 2025) | 3.75%-4.25% | 1.06-1.10 | 156-160 | |
Barclays | 5,600 | 4.25% | 1.09 | 145 | 7.20 |
J.P.Morgan | 4,200 | 3.55% | 1.13 | 146 | 7.25 |
BofA Global Research | 5,400 | 3.50% | 1.12 | 151 | 7.30 |
Deutsche Bank | 5,750 | 3.80% | 1.07 | 135 | |
Citigroup | 5,600 | 4.20% | 1.08 | 141 | 7.20 |
HSBC | 5,900 | 3.00% | 1.05 | 145 | 7.10 |
Oppenheimer | 5,900 | ||||
UBS Global Research* | 5,850 | 4.0% | 1.12 | 145 | 6.95 |
Evercore ISI | 6,000 | ||||
RBC | 5,700 |
-----
U.S. INFLATION
U.S. consumer prices rose slightly more than expected in September, but the annual increase in inflation was the smallest in more than 3-1/2 years, potentially keeping the Federal Reserve on track to cut interest rates again in November.
U.S. inflation (annual Y/Y for 2024) | ||
Headline CPI | Core PCE | |
Goldman Sachs | 2.6% | 2.7% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.10% | 2.70% |
Wells Fargo Investment Institute | 3.0% | 2.60% |
Barclays | 2.9% | 2.6% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.50% | 2.50% |
BofA Global Research | 3.5% | 2.8% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.10% | |
Citigroup | 2.0% | 2.7% |
HSBC | 3.4% | |
-----
Real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 | ||||||
GLOBAL | U.S. | CHINA | EURO AREA | UK | INDIA | |
Goldman Sachs | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 6.7% |
Morgan Stanley | 2.8% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 0.5% | -0.1% | 6.4% |
UBS Global Wealth Management* | 3.1% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 7.0% |
Barclays | 2.6% | 1.2% | 5.0% | 0.3% | 1.1% | 6.2% |
J.P.Morgan | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 6.5% |
BofA Global Research | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 7.1% |
Deutsche Bank | 3.2% | 2.7% | 4.7% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 7.0% |
Citigroup | 2.6% | 2.5% | 4.7% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 7.1% |
HSBC | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 6.3% |
UBS Global Research* | 3.1% | 2.7% | 4.8% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 6.8% |
* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group
(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Edited by Maju Samuel, Tasim Zahid, Devika Syamnath and Shounak Dasgupta)
</body></html>Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
