RBI to keep repo rate unchanged in October
Oct 3 (Reuters) -The Reserve bank of India (RBI) is widely expected to leave rates steady on Oct 9 despite the U.S. Federal Reserve's aggressive 50 basis-point rate cut in September. The RBI's focus on food price inflation suggests the repo rate will be held at 6.50%.
Whileinflation has moderated from June's high, the consumer price index rose 3.65% annually in August, slightly above July's 3.60%. Stickyfood inflation will prevent the RBI from cutting rates in October, but it may lean towards an easing at its Decemberrate review.
The RBI monetary policy committeewill likely await a clearer picture of food supply after the monsoon season and the October-November harvest period, when food prices are historically higher, adding to the case for patience on policy.
Arally in gold prices may further fuelinflation risk heading into the end-October Diwali holiday, which sees strong demand for gold.The escalating Middle East conflict could also dampenhopes of lower oil prices in India, especially if crude prices continue to climb.
The RBI's October meetingis further complicated by the appointment of three new external members to the MPC. Ram Singh, Delhi School of Economics director, economist Saugata Bhattacharya and Nagesh Kumar, directorof the Institute for Studies in Industrial Development, have been appointed for a four-year term. The term of the current external members ends this week. Other members of the MPC are RBI representatives including Governor ShaktikantaDas.
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India inflation below 4% for second consecutive month https://reut.rs/4d7HYEu
Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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