Small global coffee surplus seen next season, Rabobank says
LONDON, Sept 18 (Reuters) -The global coffee market will shift from balance to a small surplus in 2024/25 but shipping delays, container scarcity and the impact of looming EU deforestation rules will see prices steady at lofty levels for the rest of 2024, Rabobank said.
Robusta coffee prices LRCc2 hit their highest in nearly half a decade on Monday, while arabica KCc2 hit a 13-year peak as weather forecasts in top arabica producer Brazil worsened.
Rabobank said on Wednesday it expected global coffee production to hit 174 million bags in the upcoming 2024/25 season, leaving the market with a surplus of just 1.3 million bags, thanks to arabica. The surplus will not drive prices this year though, it said.
"We maintain a neutral outlook for most of the remainder of 2024 due to the EU deforestation regulation (EUDR), port congestion, scarcity of containers, and the Red Sea crisis," the bank said in a note.
The European Union law due to be implemented at the end of the year seeks to crack down on the import of commodities linked to deforestation.
The EU "seems to be acting as a vacuum cleaner, absorbing a few million extra bags of coffee to beat the EUDR implementation deadline at the end of December 2024", said the bank, but added the bullish impact of the new rules could reverse next year.
For the rest of this year though, it will be hard for prices to ease, said Rabobank. This is not just due to the EUDR, but also because there are about 3 million bags stuck in longer journey times, and a couple of million more waiting for containers.
These factors "dwarf any surplus that 2024/25 may bring", said Rabobank.
It warned that the potential for the next Brazilian crop was "hanging by a thread" following below-average rains since April, and that compromised trees needed consistent rains going forward.
Reporting by Maytaal Angel; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise
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