Prices edge up on weak wind, ahead of US election
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) -Dutch and British wholesale gas prices rose slightly on Tuesday morning on soft wind output and ahead of what is expected to be a tight U.S. presidential election.
The benchmark front-month contract at the Dutch TTF hub TRNLTTFMc1 was 0.37 euro higher at 40.85 euros per megawatt hour (MWh), or around $13/mmBtu by 0942 GMT, LSEG data showed.
The British day-ahead contract TRGBNBPD1 rose by 1.15 pence to 102.50 p/therm, while the weekend contract was 1.40 pence higher at 101.25 p/therm.
"Wind (generation) is weak which is driving demand (from power plants) - that seems especially to be supporting UK prices at the moment," a gas trader said.
"But there is also uncertainty due to the U.S. election and how all the geopolitics might unfold," the trader added.
Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump remain neck and neck in opinion polls, with voters due to cast their ballots later in the day, although the winner will likely not be known for days after voting ends.
In north-west Europe, wind speeds are forecast to hold below 10 gigawatts (GW) until at least Nov. 12 and not be above normals until Nov. 17, according to LSEG.
Britain's peak wind generation is forecast at 2.4 GW today and 3.5 GW tomorrow, out of total metered capacity of over 20 GW, Elexon data showed.
LSEG analysts expect prices to trade in the 38-40 euros range over the coming days.
Looking further ahead, analysts at Bernstein said the demand/supply fundamentals point towards a January 2025 TTF price of around $13.2/mmBtu with a normal winter, $13.5/mmBtu with a cold winter and around $13.8/mmBtu with a very cold winter.
"Over the next 6-8 months the EU call on LNG should rise: Europe will need to rely on rising LNG imports to meet our projected gas demand, despite high storage," they said.
"Yet, there is no new LNG supply starting up until 2H’25, or due to project delays possibly 2026. We estimate the deficit at a cumulative 8 billion cubic metres (bcm), should this winter be cold rather than normal; and at a material 22.4 bcm should it be very cold," they added.
In the European carbon market CFI2Zc1, the benchmark contract inched up by 0.17 euro at 65.39 euros per metric ton.
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Reporting by Nina Chestney
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