Mexican peso leads Latam FX lower as commodity declines, rate jitters weigh
Updated at 11:45 a.m. ET
Mexico GDP weakens, peso falls
Commodity currencies slip as China demand worries weigh
Mexican stocks on track for first rise in five sessions
Venezuela protests in focus
By Lisa Pauline Mattackal
July 30 (Reuters) -Mexico's peso led broader declines in Latin American currencies after weaker-than-expected economic data, while worries about commodity demand in China and caution ahead of a bevy of key central bank decisions weighed on sentiment.
Mexico's economy grew 0.2% in the second-quarter, where analysts had expected a rise of 0.4%.
Slowing growth in Latin America's largest economy fueled expectations for the central bank to cut interest rates at its August meeting, weighing on Mexico's peso MXN= which fell 0.8%to 18.7924 per dollar, its lowest in nearly seven weeks.
"Going forward, real activity is likely to face headwinds from high rates, post-election policy uncertainty, negative fiscal impulse, soft business confidence, and moderate external demand," economists at Goldman Sachs wrote.
Worries about commodity demand from China, the world's second-largest economy, also weighed on producers in Latin America, after there were no specific new stimulus efforts announced at the country's Politburo meeting.
Oil slumped to its lowest since June, while major metals including iron ore and copper also lost ground. MKTS/GLOBO/R
Trading was also cautious ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision on Wednesday, with investors watching for a dovish tone from policymakers to gauge whether market bets on a September rate cut are on the right track.
Chile's peso dipped 0.5% ahead of the scheduled start of Banco Central de Chile's policy meeting. The central bank is forecast to ease policy by 25 basis points.
Rate decisions from both Colombia and Brazil are also on deck tomorrow. Colombia is expected to ease policy from 11.25% to 10.75%, while Brazilian policymakers are expected to hold borrowing costs again.
Rate trajectories in the region highlight the challenges facing central banks in the region as they balance the need to boost economic growth with an uncertain global macroeconomic scenario and higher-for-longer rates in major developed economies such as the U.S.
The Colombian peso COP= lost 0.5% while Brazil's real BRL= was down 0.6%.
"A conservative central bank has kept the BRL's monetary fundamentals steady, but some risks emerge in H2 2024 if the BCB becomes structurally more dovish," said Thierry Wizman, global FX & rates strategist at Macquarie.
Currencies of copper producers fell, with Peru's sol PEN=PE down 0.1%, while Chile's peso CLP= briefly touched its lowest since May.
MSCI's indexes tracking the region's stocks .MILA00000PUS and currencies .MILA00000CUS fell 0.5% and 0.2%, respectively.
Local bourses were mixed, with Brazil's Bovespa .BVSP down 0.6% while Argentina's Merval .MERV slipped to a two-week low. Mexican stocks .MXX rose 0.8%, snapping five sessions of losses.
Commodity price declines dragged Brazil's Vale VALE3.SA and Petrobras PETR4.SA which lost 1.8% and 1%, respectively.
Venezuelan politics remained in focus, with protests spreading throughout the country after Nicolas Maduro was announced the winner of its presidential election despite the opposition claiming victory.
Venezuela's bonds USP97475AN0=1M, USP97475AJ9=1M were broadly steady after declines on Monday.
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Key Latin American stock indexes and currencies at 11:45 a.m. ET:
Latest | Daily % change | |
MSCI Emerging Markets .MSCIEF | 1071.77 | -0.51 |
MSCI LatAm .MILA00000PUS | 2169.65 | -0.45 |
Brazil Bovespa .BVSP | 126199.58 | -0.59 |
Mexico IPC .MXX | 52890.96 | 0.71 |
Chile IPSA .SPIPSA | 6486.10 | 0 |
Argentina MerVal .MERV | 1453926.78 | -1.844 |
Colombia COLCAP .COLCAP | 1337.63 | -0.23 |
Currencies | Latest | Daily % change |
Brazil real BRBY | 5.6496 | -0.44 |
Mexico peso MXN=D2 | 18.7924 | -0.88 |
Chile peso CLP=CL | 958.2 | -0.53 |
Colombia peso COP= | 4083.3 | -0.58 |
Peru sol PEN=PE | 3.7318 | -0.28 |
Argentina peso (interbank) ARS=RASL | 931.5000 | 0.05 |
Argentina peso (parallel) ARSB= | 1370 | 3.28 |
Caracas claw back https://reut.rs/46ng45C
Reporting by Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru;
Editing by Marguerita Choy
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