China's 2024 palm oil demand seen dropping 30% y/y, Cargill estimates
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) -China's demand for palm oil products in 2024 is estimated to drop 30% from a year earlier as high prices make it less attractive than soyoil and vegetable oil demand has stagnated,an executive at Cargill's Chinese unit said on Friday.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil prices have gained over 30% so far this year amid falling output in top producer Indonesia and bullish sentiment over its plan to widen its biodiesel mandate, which may take away supply for export markets.
"This is the first year in many years that soybean oil is so cheap versus palm for extended period of time in China ... both in the cash market and also in the futures market," Ryan Chen, a director at Cargill Investments (China) Ltd, told the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference in Bali on Friday.
Cash refined soybean oil is about 1,000 yuan ($139.92) per metric ton cheaper than refined, bleached, deodorized (RBD) palm oil in the main palm oil consuming regions in South China, Chen said.
Soybean oil for the January contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) is also 1,000 yuan cheaper than palm oil, he said.
China's palm olein imports in 2024 could drop by 45% from a year ago to 2.3 million tons, from 4.2 million tons in 2023, if the price spread between palm oil and soy oil persists, while next year's imports are projected at 2.3 million to 2.4 million tons, according to Chen's presentation.
Imports of other palm products such as refined palm stearin and palm oil mill effluent, a palm fatty acid distillate that is typically used for biodiesel, are likely to drop due to poor processing margins in China and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) export restrictions.
Palm oil's share of China's vegetable oil market is projected to fall to 12.8% in 2024 from 17.5% last year with palm oil consumption expected to fall below 2022 levels, when Indonesia, the world's biggest palm oil exporter, banned overseas shipments, according to Chen.
($1 = 7.1469 Chinese yuan renminbi)
Reporting by Bernadette Christina; editing by Christian Schmollinger
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