Yield increases normal after rate cut, may last short-term
U.S. indexes up marginally: Nasdaq up ~0.25%
Materials lead S&P 500 sector gainers; Financials weakest group
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.6%
Dollar down; Bitcoin slips; gold up, crude rises >1%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield edges up to ~3.75%
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YIELD INCREASES NORMAL AFTER RATE CUT, MAY LAST SHORT-TERM
Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields have increased since the Federal Reserve launched its rate cutting cycle with a bigger than some expected 50 basis points reduction. That is not unusual after a first Fed cut, and there are reasons yields could continue to rise short-term, according to ING.
This move “likely persists for a bit. But history also shows that the 10yr yield ultimately hits a level lower than seen at the first cut,” Padhraic Garvey, regional head of research, Americas at ING said in a note.
Garvey notes that 10-year yields rose by 20 to 50 basis points after the first cut in the four rate-cutting cycles during the 1990’s and 2000s, typically over the following month or so.
That contrasts with the three rate cutting cycles in the 1980s, when yields fell materially following the first cut. Garvey notes this may have been because they began with high rates. In 2019, meanwhile, rates fell after the first cut from lower levels.
For now, yields may still rise further, ING says.
“Despite the chunky 50bp cut, the Federal Reserve seems convincingly upbeat on the economy. That suggests the cut is an offensive one; a means to averting a material slowdown. If true, it suggests that recession risk is reduced (not panic increased),” Garvey noted.
In this scenario there is no need for the Fed to cut rates below 3%, which should then act as a "red line floor" for rates across the curve. Ten-year yields may have a floor of around 3.5%, based on where the yields are relative to the SOFR curve.
Thus, a move to 3.9% on 10-year yields is viable, based on previous periods, with the question then “whether there is an appetite to break above 4%,” Garvey said.
Ultimately, however, yields are likely to drop with soft jobs data being the most likely catalyst. Garvey sees 10-year yields heading back toward 3.5%, breaking below the 3.599% level reached on Sept. 17. That was the day before the rate cut and the lowest level since June 2023. They were last at 3.745%. US10YT=RR
(Karen Brettell)
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FOR TUESDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
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