US steelmakers brace for tepid quarterly profit, further price declines
By Aatreyee Dasgupta
July 16 (Reuters) -Top U.S. steelmakers are expected to post a decline in second-quarter earnings and could face additional pressure from a further retreat in steel prices heading into a slow summer season, according to analysts.
Nucor NUE.N, Steel Dynamics STLD.O and U.S. Steel X.N have highlighted a fall in profitability in their steel-making operations on lower realized pricing, in June.
Steel prices fell because of a supply glut fueled by domestic production and imports, prompting distributors to refrain from purchasing more material in excess of their inventory.
"On the back of plentiful supply, prices have declined, but this hasn't prompted an increase in steel buying as the market's levels of demand remain subdued," said Stuart Gray, a steel market analyst at UK-based consultancy MEPS International.
CONTEXT
Analysts expect the decline in prices to extend into the summer period, when steel consumption usually sees a dip, before a possible restocking by distributors on bottoming of prices.
They also expect steelmakers to curb supply until the inflation-hit domestic demand catches up.
"U.S. steel producers in the short term will shut some of their plants until demand increases and eventually steel prices go back up," said Patrick Penfield, professor of supply chain practice at Syracuse University.
FUNDAMENTALS
Steelmaker | LSEG estimated mean for adjusted EPS | Forecast for Q2 2024 adjusted EPS | Reported Q1 2024 adj EPS | Reported Q2 2023 adj EPS |
Nucor | $2.37 | $2.20 to $2.30 | $3.46 | $5.81 |
Steel Dynamics | $2.67 | $2.64 to $2.68 | $3.67 | $4.81 |
U.S. Steel | 76 cents | 76 cents to 80 cents | 82 cents | $1.92 |
Average North America price for hot-rolled coil — the most actively traded form of finished steel — dropped to $885 per ton in the second quarter from $1,041.7 in the preceding three months, according to MEPS data.
WALL STREET SENTIMENT
** The S&P 500 steel sub-industry index .SPLRCSTEEL is flat year-to-date, compared with a 28.4% rise in 2023.
** Steel Dynamics has outperformed the steel sub-index, with an 11.7% rise year-to-date.
North America steel price forecast https://reut.rs/4btQhKa
Steel Dynamics outperforms S&P Steel sub-index this year https://reut.rs/4eGLVSN
Reporting by Aatreyee Dasgupta in Bengaluru; Editing by Arpan Varghese and Shilpi Majumdar
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