US soft landing not a long shot
Main U.S. indexes slightly green: S&P 500 up ~0.3%
Tech leads S&P 500 sector gainers; Industrials weakest group
Dollar slips; gold edges up; crude up ~1%; bitcoin up ~1.5%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield falls to ~3.95%
Welcome to the home for real-time coverage of markets brought to you by Reuters reporters. You can share your thoughts with us at markets.research@thomsonreuters.com
US SOFT LANDING NOT A LONG SHOT
After a steep stock market selloff and a U.S. unemployment rate that has supposedly triggered a recession signal, Loomis Sayles writes in its latest research note, that a soft landing for the world's largest economy is still a possibility.
Since last Friday, everybody has been talking about a recession indicator, known as the Sahm rule, activated when the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate is at least half a percentage point higher than the 12-month low. The rule was named after ex-Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm and first introduced as part of a policy proposal in 2019.
On Aug 2nd, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate ticked up two tenths to 4.3%, cranking up the Sahm rule and likely sparking Monday's selloff.
Loomis Sayles, led by sovereign analyst Matthew Novak and global macro strategist Tyler Silvey, delved deeper into the components of the unemployment rate. They found that temporary job losses -- likely driven by Hurricane Beryl -- and new entrants into the workforce are responsible for the bulk of the rise in the unemployment rate, rather than major pickup in permanent job losses.
"This indicates robust labor supply is the main driver behind the rise in the unemployment rate, which we see as a much more benign signal than if it were materially weakening labor demand," Loomis says.
Other encouraging signals for Loomis include the fact that the employment to population ratio for 25-54 year olds, the workforce's primary segment, is strong and continues to trend higher.
In addition, the asset manager says while the weekly jobless claims have risen, they remain within a two-year range and far below historical recession levels.
Outside the labor market, Loomis still expects the U.S. corporate health to remain stable overall, although it has turned slightly more cautious on the sector.
It notes that the corporate earnings season has so far been strong, with nearly 80% of S&P 500 companies surpassing expectations. Positive earnings have also been widening out beyond the tech sector, it adds.
Overall, "the Federal Reserve is aiming for a soft landing, and softer data is supposed to be part of the package." But Loomis acknowledges that soft landings are "historically rare and can be easy to overshoot."
(Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss)
*****
FOR FRIDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
TECH STOCKS ARE ATTRACTIVE AGAIN, DESERVES UPGRADE TO 'OVERWEIGHT, - TRUIST'S LERNER - CLICK HERE
INDIVIDUAL INVESTOR BEARS DANCE TO A 9-MONTH HIGH - AAII - CLICK HERE
WALL STREET MIXED, BUT ON PACE FOR WEEKLY LOSSES - CLICK HERE
S&P 500 INDEX: WHIPLASH - CLICK HERE
AI RALLY'S FIRST SETBACK "OVERDUE" - DWS CIO - CLICK HERE
STOXX 600 SET FOR FURTHER 10% DRAWDOWN - BOFA - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN SHARES TURN POSITIVE FOR THE WEEK - CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES EDGE UP - CLICK HERE
TURBULENT WEEK ENDING ON A HIGH -CLICK HERE
Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
