US recap: USD rose with yields after below-forecast claims lift risk
Aug 8 (Reuters) -The dollar index rose 0.15% to 103.27 in NorAm afternoon trading aided by a broad risk-on move after U.S. jobless claims came in below consensus forecasts hinting that post-payrolls heightened recession fears and market meltdowns were overblown and the employment picture is evolving at a pace that would allow the Fed to embark on a measured policy reduction pace.
UST yields rose further off recent lows as data helped stabilize recession fears and the effects on markets. Yields in the 2-30 year space rose 4-6bps with the oft-watched 10-yr yield straddling 4%.
EUR/USD lagged the broader market falling 0.1% to 1.0910 as bund yields failed to keep pace with the rise in UST yields. Euro support can be found at the 10- and 21-DMAs in the 1.0870s. Friday's German price data will be in focus for euro traders, with CPI and HICP expected to match June levels.
USD/JPY rose 0.36% to 147.21, as the yen remains dominated by interest rate differentials. The recent mixed messaging on rates, by Ueda and Uchida provided uncertainty and propped up the dollar. Today's below forecast claims data which widened Japan-U.S. rate spreads aided the rise. As the Japan-U.S. rate landscape plays out, USD/JPY has resistance just ahead of 148 the Wednesday high.
GBP/USD rallied 0.4% to 1.2738, in sympathy with the broad dollar trend, as the less-draconian claims data alleviated some of the recessionary and low rate concerns after Friday's dour U.S. payrolls release. The relatively high rate pound is likely to remain bid, data permitting, with support at the bruised 100-DMA by 1.2684.
AUD/USD, like the pound, soared, rising 0.98% to 0.6583, as the dialing back of global recessionary fears/more-hawkish RBA expectations helped prop up the high rate AUD. Aussie$ bulls target the 100-DMA at 0.6601, and a push above puts the 55- and 30-DMA at 0.6641 in focus.
With the all-clear given for risk amid more manageable employment data, equity markets were in full-blown risk-on mode with the Nasdaq gaining 2.7% and S&P 500 up 2%.
Cryptos were back in favor despite the rising UST yields. Bitcoin rose 8.1% to $59.7k, while ether rose 10.3% to $2,591.
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Editing by Terence Gabriel
Paul Spirgel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own.
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