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US natgas rebounds over 3% on warmer weather outlook, short covering



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Adds latest prices

Aug 6 (Reuters) -U.S. natural gas futures gained more than 3% on Tuesday as forecasts for a return to warmer-than-usual weather in the coming weeks that could boost the amount of gas power generators burn, prompting some short covering from traders.

Front-month gas futures NGc1 for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange were up 6.8 cents, or about 3.5%, to settle at $2.01 per million British thermal units.

Prices fell more than 1% to a one-week low on Monday on forecasts for lower demand and against a backdrop of falling global stock markets.

"Despite some cooling across much of the mid continent within the next few days, partially due to the effects of Hurricane Debby along the East Coast, a return to broad based warmer than normal trends across virtually the entire U.S.next week will continue to offer near term price support," energy advisory Ritterbusch and Associates said in a note.

"Some strengthening in European gas pricing is also being supportive as has been the recent recovery in export activity but for now, elevated production near 103 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day)remains as an upside price limiter that will likely be prompting some larger than normal storage injections," Ritterbusch said.

Financial firm LSEG estimated 221 cooling degree days (CDDs) over the next two weeks, slightly lower from 225 CDDs estimated on Monday. The normal for this time of year is 191 CDDs.

Cooling degree days, used to estimate demand to cool homes and businesses, measure the number of degrees a day's average temperature is above 65 degrees Fahrenheit (18 degrees Celsius).

LSEG said gas output in the Lower 48 states had risen to an average of 103.8 bcfdso far in August, up from 103.4 bcfd in July. That compares with a monthly record high of 105.5 bcfd in December 2023.

Dutch and British wholesale gas prices edged up, rebounding slightly after losses in the previous session, but supply remains healthy and demand largely flat. NG/EU

Hurricane Debby made landfall as a Category 1 storm in the Big Bend region of Florida's Gulf Coast on Monday morning and began a slow crawl across the state. More than 113,000 homes and businesses in Florida were left without electricity as Debby, now a tropical storm, slammed into the state's Gulf Coast, according to data from PowerOutage.us. FBOX/

However, LSEG forecast average gas demand in the Lower 48 states, including exports, to fall from 110.0 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to 104.9 bcfd next week.

Meanwhile, Japanese city gas provider Osaka Gas 9532.T signed a long-term Heads of Agreement(HOA) with UAE's ADNOC [RIC:RIC:ADNOC.UL] for the delivery of up to 0.8 million metric tons per annum of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to secure stable supplies.



Week ended Aug 2 Forecast

Week ended July 26 Actual

Year ago Aug 2

Five-year average

Aug 2


U.S. weekly natgas storage change (bcf):

+30

+18

+25

+38


U.S. total natgas in storage (bcf):

3,279

3,249

2,022

2,846


U.S. total storage versus 5-year average

15.2%

15.7%


Global Gas Benchmark Futures ($ per mmBtu)

Current Day

Prior Day

This Month Last Year

Prior Year Average 2023

Five-Year Average (2018-2022)

Henry Hub NGc1

1.93

1.89

2.65

2.66

3.60

Title Transfer Facility (TTF) TRNLTTFMc1

11.92

11.20

11.21

13.04

14.39

Japan Korea Marker (JKM) JKMc1

12.45

12.52

12.43

14.39

14.31

LSEG Heating (HDD), Cooling (CDD) and Total (TDD) Degree Days

Two-Week Total Forecast

Current Day

Prior Day

Prior Year

10-Year Norm

30-Year Norm

U.S. GFS HDDs

6

6

2

2

4

U.S. GFS CDDs

221

225

222

198

191

U.S. GFS TDDs

227

231

224

200

195

LSEG U.S. Weekly GFS Supply and Demand Forecasts

Prior Week

Current Week

Next Week

This Week Last Year

Five-Year (2019-2023) Average For Month

U.S. Supply (bcfd)

U.S. Lower 48 Dry Production

102.5

103.8

104.0

102.3

96.3

U.S. Imports from Canada

7.7

8.1

7.8

N/A

7.3

U.S. LNG Imports

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

Total U.S. Supply

110.3

111.9

111.8

N/A

103.7

U.S. Demand (bcfd)

U.S. Exports to Canada

1.7

1.5

1.5

N/A

2.3

U.S. Exports to Mexico

7.3

6.9

7.1

N/A

6.1

U.S. LNG Exports

11.8

12.9

12.7

12.6

7.7

U.S. Commercial

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.5

U.S. Residential

3.5

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.4

U.S. Power Plant

47.9

51.0

45.9

48.3

43.0

U.S. Industrial

21.7

21.9

21.8

21.3

21.7

U.S. Plant Fuel

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.1

U.S. Pipe Distribution

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

U.S. Vehicle Fuel

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

Total U.S. Consumption

84.9

88.6

83.6

84.8

80.0

Total U.S. Demand

105.8

110.0

104.9

N/A

96.1

N/A is Not Available












U.S. Northwest River Forecast Center (NWRFC) at The Dalles Dam

Current Day % of Normal Forecast

Prior Day % of Normal Forecast

2023

% of Normal Actual

2022 % of Normal Actual

2021 % of Normal Actual

Apr-Sep

74

74

83

107

81

Jan-Jul

76

76

77

102

79

Oct-Sep

77

77

76

103

81

U.S. weekly power generation percent by fuel - EIA

Week ended Aug 9

Week ended Aug 2

2023

2022

2021

Wind

5

8

10

11

10

Solar

5

5

4

3

3

Hydro

5

5

6

6

7

Other

1

1

2

2

2

Petroleum

0

0

0

0

0

Natural Gas

48

46

41

38

37

Coal

19

17

17

21

23

Nuclear

17

16

19

19

20

SNL U.S. Natural Gas Next-Day Prices ($ per mmBtu)

Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

Henry Hub NG-W-HH-SNL

1.83

1.89


Transco Z6 New York NG-CG-NY-SNL

1.41

1.63


PG&E Citygate NG-CG-PGE-SNL

3.25

3.39


Eastern Gas (old Dominion South) NG-PCN-APP-SNL

1.23

1.48


Chicago Citygate NG-CG-CH-SNL

1.71

1.90


Algonquin Citygate NG-CG-BS-SNL

1.50

1.75


SoCal Citygate NG-SCL-CGT-SNL

2.89

2.75


Waha Hub NG-WAH-WTX-SNL

0.30

1.12




AECO NG-ASH-ALB-SNL

0.64

0.82



SNL U.S. Power Next-Day Prices ($ per megawatt-hour)


Hub

Current Day

Prior Day

New England EL-PK-NPMS-SNL

33.50

53.50



PJM West EL-PK-PJMW-SNL

57.75

45.00



Ercot North EL-PK-ERTN-SNL

130.25

45.00


Mid C EL-PK-MIDC-SNL

70.50

85.67




Palo Verde EL-PK-PLVD-SNL

82.25

125.83


SP-15 EL-PK-SP15-SNL

80.50

62.50




Reporting by Rahul Paswan and Brijesh Patel in Bengaluru; editing by Jonathan Oatis and Marguerita Choy

For gas data on LSEG's Eikon type ENERGY in the search bar and then go to the GAS drop down and the NORTH AMERICA drop down.

For Interactive Map, type 'Interactive Map' in the box at upper left of the Eikon terminal

For graphics on Baker Hughes rig counts, see: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/15/rigcount/index.html

For next-day SNL U.S. gas prices, see: 0#SNL-NG

For next-day SNL U.S. power prices, see: 0#SNL-PWR

For U.S. natgas price and storage polls, see: NGAS/POLL

For U.S. nuclear power outages, see: NUKE/

For U.S. Northwest hydro power report, see: NWRFC

For U.S./Canada natural gas rig count vs Henry Hub futures price, see: http://tmsnrt.rs/2eT9k44

For the U.S. natural gas speed guide, see: USGAS

For the U.S. power speed guide, see: USPOWER

To determine CFTC managed money net position add (NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023651MNET) plus (ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 3023391MNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 303565BMNET divided by four) plus (NYMEX Henry Hub penultimate gas swaps 303565CMNET divided by four)

NYMEX Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023651

NYMEX Henry Hub futures only 0#1CFTC023651

ICE Henry Hub options and futures combined 0#3CFTC023391

NYMEX Henry Hub swaps options and futures combined 0#3CFTC03565B

NYMEX Henry Hub Penultimate gas swaps 0#3CFTC03565C
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