The BoE's newest rate setter could hold the deciding vote
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THE BOE'S NEWEST RATE SETTER COULD HOLD THE DECIDING VOTE
Whether the Bank of England cuts rates at its August meeting, or holds off until September is finely balanced, nearly all analysts say.
But because the BoE is unusual in that it publishes how the nine members of its Monetary Policy Committee vote, there is scope for some fun analysing how it will play out.
Goldman Sachs analysts did that in a note from late Thursday, and conclude it could all come down to the BoE's new deputy governor for monetary policy, Clare Lombardelli, who took up her role on July 1.
On the more hawkish side, MPC external members Jonathan Haskel and Catherine Mann's recent remarks point to them voting to hold, Goldman say.
Then "(Megan) Greene has not spoken recently, but her previous comments likewise suggest that she will vote for unchanged Bank Rate," they write, and "while chief economist (Huw) Pill has signalled some openness to lowering rates, the June CPI report likely supports his caution around inflation persistence and we expect him to vote for a hold."
At the other end, Dave Ramsden, deputy governor for markets and banking and external member Swati Dhingra have already been voting to cut, and Goldman sees Governor Andrew Bailey, and Sarah Breeden, deputy governor for financial stability, joining them.
That makes four on each side, and leaves it down to Lombardelli, whom Goldman expect to vote along with Bailey, making it a 5-4 spit in favour of a cut.
It should be a memorable first meeting for her.
(Samuel Indyk)
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