Sudden strength in laggards doesn't necessarily signal a stout market
Main U.S. indexes rally: Nasdaq out front, up ~2.4%
All S&P 500 sectors green; Tech leads
Euro STOXX 600 index up ~0.1%
Dollar edges up; crude up ~1%; gold up >1%; bitcoin up >8%
U.S. 10-Year Treasury yield rises to ~3.99%
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SUDDEN STRENGTH IN LAGGARDS DOESN'T NECESSARILY SIGNAL A STOUT MARKET
With the upcoming presidential election, the United States will face a changing of the guard in terms of its leadership.
Meanwhile, in July, the market may have experienced its own change in leadership.
As Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer and portfolio manager at The Leuthold Group, sees it, it's likely that the incumbent stock leaders were fated to stall out before July's wild events.
He notes that last month, correlations between the winning themes (Tech, Growth, Large Cap) and everything else had sunk to levels seen at prior turning points.
"July's changing of the guard has been hailed as a healthy market broadening, and it's led to a rare situation in which the World's Reserve IndexTM (S&P 500) is lagging the NYSE Advance/Decline Line," writes Ramsey in a note.
Ramsey believes that major turning points in leadership are sometimes accompanied by cyclical inflection points in the market itself. For instance, he notes that the Y2K peak occurred just as the market broadened after two years of extreme-concentration.
His caution is that a sudden surge in the laggards, like what occurred in July, "is Not Always a Healthy Broadening."
(Terence Gabriel)
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