Stronger levels for CEE currencies seen, but little relief
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURCZK= euro/koruna poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURPLN= euro/zloty poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURHUF= euro/forint poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRON= euro/leu poll data
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl://apps.cp./Apps/fx-polls?RIC=EURRSD= euro/Serbian dinar poll data
By Jason Hovet
PRAGUE, Nov 1 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies could regain ground in coming months after falling to multi-month lows amid uncertainty before U.S. elections, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, but pressure is unlikely to go away quickly for Hungary's forint.
The forint is central Europe's worst-performing currency in 2024, having lost almost 6% against the euro as of Wednesday's close. In the past month, it has depreciated more than 2% and hit more than 22-month lows.
Pressure has also come this week from data showing the Hungarian economy tilted into a technical recession.
In the poll, analysts saw the forint stronger in coming months. But after that expected bump, the currency is likely to continue in a weakening trend.
The poll's median forecast put the forint EURHUF= at 400 to the euro in three months, or 1.9% firmer than Wednesday's close. In 12 months the forint was seen at 405 per euro, just a touch firmer than levels seen this week.
"We expect the Hungarian forint to be stuck in the 400-410 range with a lot of... risks stemming from the U.S. election outcome and local economic and fiscal concerns," ING economist Peter Virovacz said.
Commerzbank said in a note on Thursday the forint's depreciation could raise concern at Hungary's central bank, which has paused a rate-cutting cycle. Government pressure to continue rate cuts could rise due to the weak economy, it said.
The local factors have mixed with a stronger dollar weighing on central Europe, as global investors see chances former president Donald Trump could win in U.S. elections on Nov. 5.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= touched a four-month low this week. It, too, was seen rebounding and keeping up gains, with the three-month median forecast at 4.30 per euro, up 1.3% from Wednesday's close, and at 4.2833 in 12 months' time.
The Czech crown should also recover from a fall and is seen 1.1% stronger in three months, at 25.10 to the euro, and 2.5% stronger in a year to lead gains in the region.
Romania's leu, in contrast, was expected to weaken a touch in the coming months and lose 0.5% in the next year to fall to 5.00 to the euro.
(Other stories from the November Reuters foreign exchange poll)
Reporting by Jason Hovet; Polling by Purujit Arun, Jaiganesh Mahesh and Renusri K; Editing by Mark Potter
Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
