Rupee perched at all-time low; oil prices add to worries
By Nimesh Vora
MUMBAI, Aug 13 (Reuters) -The Indian rupee, sitting at a lifetime low, is not expected to find much relief on Tuesday on persistent dollar demand from importers and amid a jump in oil prices on expectations of a widening conflict in the Middle East.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate the rupee INR=IN will open mostly unchanged to the U.S. dollar from 83.9725 on Monday, which is an all-time low for the currency. The rupee, in recent sessions, has been avoiding a drop to the 84 handle, thanks primarily to the Reserve Bank of India's intervention.
On Monday, the RBI was selling dollars at near the 83.97 level, according to traders.
"It's a regular script now (the RBI intervention) and until it changes, you have to expect that it will be repeated," a currency trader at a bank said.
"The more important thing is the source of this huge dollar demand that we have been seeing. Not sure what it is - NDF, oil, gold-related is what I have been hearing."
Oil prices climbed more than 3% on Monday on worries that a wider Middle Eastern conflict could tighten supplies. Brent crude is now up more than 6% since the beginning of last week.
Oil prices have not been "much of a factor" for the rupee, but it is an "incrementally negative" variable in an already difficult environment, a treasury official at a bank said.
Asian currencies were mixed and the dollar index =USD was holding at just above the 103 level, awaiting data that will hold cues on the timing and size of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The U.S. wholesale inflation data is due later in the day and the consumer inflation print will be released on Wednesday.
"Consensus expects a combination of data that will allow the Federal Reserve to cut in September," ING Bank said in a note.
KEY INDICATORS:
** One-month non-deliverable rupee INRNDFOR= forward at 84.04; onshore one-month forward premium at 7.50 paise
** Dollar index =USD up at 103.1
** Brent crude futures LCOc1 at $81.7 per barrel
** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 3.91%
** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $138.4 mln worth of Indian shares on Aug. 11
** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $104.2 mln worth of Indian bonds on Aug. 11
Reporting by Nimesh Vora; Editing by Mrigank Dhaniwala
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