Rate cut signals weigh on forint, crown
WARSAW, July 24 (Reuters) -The forint weakened further on Wednesday after Hungary's central bank cut interest rates and signalled more easing, while the crown also sagged ahead of a Czech policy meeting next week that could see a debate on maintaining a cutting pace.
On Tuesday, the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) delivered its 15th successive rate cut, lowering its base rate by another 25 basis points to 6.75%, in line with a narrow consensus. That brought the total scale of easing to 1,125 bps since May 2023.
NBH deputy governor Barnabas Virag said that one or two further rate cuts expected by economists before the end of 2024 looked realistic. He added that inflation could come in below market expectations in the second half despite somewhat stronger repricing than in the past.
"Yesterday's rate cut is just a confirmation for markets of the current market pricing and will be a trigger for HUF (forint) to weaken," ING analysts said in a note.
By 0923 GMT, the forint EURHUF= was down 0.4% against the euro to 392.05, continuing to retreat from a 1-1/2-month high set on Monday.
ING analysts said that while low summer liquidity could bring surprises, the forint was heading for 394 per euro in the coming days and towards the top end of the 385-400 range which they see it trading within the medium term.
A Budapest-based trader said a poor PMI reading across Europe has caused investor blues and sent the euro lower against the dollar. A firming dollar often signals risk aversion among investors, including towards emerging market currencies.
Meanwhile, the Czech crown EURCZK=, which has been weakening since Monday, hit a five month low before cutting its morning losses and shedding 0.1% to 25.4020 per euro.
The Czech crown is on the defensive after central bank Vice-Governor Jan Frait did not rule out the option of another 50-bp interest rate cut next week despite previous signals the bank would slow its easing pace.
"We believe that debate on a 50-bp cut may be on the table, but we think that in view of more cautious ECB rate cuts..., the CNB will ultimately be more cautious," CSOB analysts said in a note, adding preliminary second-quarter GDP data due just before the rate meeting would provide clearer clues.
In Poland the zloty EURPLN= traded flat at 4.2790 per euro.
Alior Bank analysts noted that the zloty managed to resist Tuesday's increased risk aversion in the markets and traded even. "Nevertheless, current weak market sentiment may put some pressure on the Polish zloty to weaken."
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1123 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4020 | 25.3870 | -0.06% | -2.76% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 392.0500 | 390.5750 | -0.38% | -2.26% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2790 | 4.2785 | -0.01% | +1.53% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9700 | 4.9726 | +0.05% | +0.09% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9500 | 117.0500 | +0.09% | +0.25% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1611.40 | 1618.3600 | -0.43% | +13.96% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73424.33 | 73622.19 | -0.27% | +21.12% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2445.55 | 2445.06 | +0.02% | +4.38% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18713.72 | 18696.86 | +0.09% | +21.75% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5770 | -0.0360 | +084bps | -1bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6110 | -0.0390 | +123bps | -2bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7540 | -0.0310 | +132bps | -3bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0930 | -0.0080 | +235bps | +2bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4660 | -0.0670 | +309bps | -5bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6220 | -0.0420 | +319bps | -4bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.13 | 3.73 | 3.54 | 4.57 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.67 | 6.06 | 5.73 | 6.64 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.82 | 5.70 | 5.37 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest and Jason Hovet in Prague; editing by Mark Heinrich
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