Next up: Payrolls
STOXX 600 up 0.3%
FTSE 100 +0.1%, FTSE 250 +1.1%
Labour wins big majority
Payrolls in focus
S&P futures steady
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NEXT UP: PAYROLLS
Just when you thought markets might be winding down for the week in between elections in Europe's second and third largest economies, the U.S. labour market report rears its head.
At 1230 GMT, the BLS releases its employment report and markets are watching for signs of a softening labour market that would allow the Fed to cut rates, but not so soft that it indicates a recession or rapid economic slowdown.
"For now, there is nothing in the data which appears to suggest recessionary developments," BlueBay chief investment officer Mark Dowding says.
"Risk assets have been supported by a narrative that a gentle moderation in economic activity can open the door to lower interest rates, without too many adverse consequences."
U.S. markets .SPX have hit records this week, leading global equities .MIWD00000PUS to fresh peaks on Friday.
Back to today, and economists surveyed by Reuters expect payroll growth to have slowed to 190K last month, from the blowout 272K the month before. Forecasts range from 140K-250K.
Goldman Sachs, who forecast the lowest increase in payrolls at 140K, say big data measures indicate below normal pace of job creation while calendar quirks could also pull the figure down.
"We...assume a 50k drag from payback effects," GS writes, "because we believe the longer-than-usual survey window in last month's report pulled forward reported job growth from June into May."
Average hourly earnings, a key input for the inflationary outlook, are forecast to gain 3.9% year-on-year, from 4.1% last month, while the unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 4%.
(Samuel Indyk)
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FRIDAY'S OTHER LIVE MARKETS POSTS
UK LABOUR'S WIN: A BURDEN FOR DIVERSIFIED FINANCIALS AND INSURANCE, A RELIEF FOR UTILITIES CLICK HERE
THE RISE OF THE MODERATES, EYES ON FRANCE CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCKS HIGHER, BRITAIN'S MID-CAPS HIGHEST SINCE APRIL 2022 CLICK HERE
EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES HIGHER; ELECTIONS, PAYROLLS IN FOCUS CLICK HERE
STARMER'S STEADY START CLICK HERE
The pound has outperformed peers against the dollar in 2024 https://reut.rs/4eDwESq
European shares rise after Labour victory https://reut.rs/3xMBkFi
Selected forecasts for Nonfarm Payrolls https://reut.rs/3Wawpan
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