MAS to stay on hold in July, USD/SGD biased higher
July 22 (Reuters) -The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) is likely to leave its foreign exchange policy settings unchanged on Friday, with no adjustmentto the slope, midpoint or width of the SGD NEER policy band. USD/SGD should continue to average around 1.5% above the assumed midpoint.
Core inflation rose 3.1% year-on-year in May, still a tad elevated, giving the MAS little reason to ease now. The data does not provide reason for the MAS to tighten either, after keeping policy on hold sinceits last tightening in October 2022.
Inflation is unlikely to deviate much from the 3% midpoint of the MAS's 2.5% to 3.5% forecast range in the near term. The MAS Survey of Professional Forecasters on June 24 showed a consensus projection of 3%.June inflation data is due on Tuesday,ahead of the MAS policy decision, and the Reuters poll sees core inflation cooling slightly from May to 3.0%.
Yet policymakers remain wary of upside risks to inflation from geopolitical tensions, disruptions to global shipping, energy and food prices. Higher wages and employment growth could lead to inflationary pressure too.
The recovery in Singapore's GDPgrowth further reduces the need for MAS to ease policy. The economy grew 2.9% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to preliminary data.
TheMAS expects 2024 GDP growth to be closer to its 2%-3% potential range, above the 1.1% growth in 2023. The Ministry of Trade and Industry's official forecast range remains at 1%-3%.
USD/SGD is likely to stay firm above its March lows around 1.3300,in line with the stronger USD and bullish outlook for USD/CNH to rise to 7.30-7.35. USD/SGD risks a return to 1.3700 by the end of 2024.
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Catherine Tan is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are her own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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