Markets favoring "Trump trades" but election looks too close to call
Retops, adds quotes
Nov 5 (Reuters) - Republican Donald Trump won 14 states in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election while Democrat Kamala Harris captured four states and Washington, D.C., Edison Research projected, but the contest remained undecided with critical battleground states unlikely to be called for hours or even days.
The early results were as anticipated, with the contest expected to come down to seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Opinion polls showed the rivals neck and neck in all seven going into Election Day.
As of 9 p.m. ET (0200 GMT on Wednesday), polls had closed in 41 states and Washington, D.C. Trump had 154 electoral votes to Harris' 30 electoral votes. A candidate needs a total of 270 votes in the Electoral College to claim the presidency.
MARKET REACTION
* S&P 500 e-mini futures EScv1 rose 1.1%
* The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note US10YT=TWEB rose to a four-month high and was at4.418%
* The U.S. dollar index =USD was up 1.27%
* Bitcoin BTC=was up 5.3% at $72,856
COMMENTS:
DAVID WAGNER, PORTFOLIO MANAGER AT APTUS CAPITAL ADVISORS IN CINCINNATI, OHIO
“The initial results have come in exactly as expected, but the market began to spike, after hours, as the first wave of states closed their polling stations. We may not know the official results of the presidential election tonight, but we should know a lot more color regarding the composition of Congress. This may be just as important because it will dictate the direction of taxes next year - corporate taxes and the individual tax issues that are sunsetting at the end of next year - and I believe that this will be the most discussed economic policy over the next twelve months.“
MICHAEL GREEN, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SIMPLIFY ASSET MANAGEMENT, SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
"There's very much an emotional component in markets associated with the vote at this point, because it has become a consensus view that if Trump wins, stocks are going up. People are trying to get ahead of it. I don't think there's any meaningful information about what Trump's policy will be until we have much clearer results in terms of both Congress and the presidency."
ARNIM HOLZER, GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGY AT EASTERLY EAB RISK SOLUTIONS, Pennsylvania
"We began to see a recovery of the Trump trade, a little more than we would have expected, leaning towards a Trump victory.
"If we look at the long end of the curve, that reflects the fact that both candidates are not exactly fiscal conservatives, they're both willing to use the fiscal printing press. So I don't think the movements on the long end are necessarily pointing to a Trump victory.
"The biggest issue is if Trump or Harris are going to get full mandates. If they don't get blue or red sweeps, it limits the fiscal damage, and that's the best outcome for bondholders."
JAMIE COX, MANAGING PARTNER, HARRIS FINANCIAL GROUP
“The early indications are Republicans are outperforming in areas where they haven't traditionally, in places like Miami Dade. I would imagine that at this particular moment, the Harris camp is worried. The markets are reflecting that we might know the answer sooner, rather than have to wait multiple days to have the answer to the election. That's what markets have been most worried about, that there would be a long, drawn-out fight over who won. Being able to get a decisive winner, whoever it is, is going to be good for market and that's what's reflected, both in today's performance and also the futures right now.”
ALEX MORRIS, PRESIDENT & CIO OF F/M INVESTMENTS, WASHINGTON, DC
“The market was well prepared for this uncertainty. Stock futures are pretty much muted right now, but everyone’s trying to take the few inches of data we’ve got right now and turn it into a mile. But while there are a lot of traders trying to get ahead of this thing, I don’t think we’ll see a real increase in activity for another hour or two, when we get to the Midwestern states, we get more data from North Carolina and some insight into Pennsylvania. There will be a lot of us up until 2 a.m. or 3 a.m. trying to figure out what is happening and what positions we may need to adjust.”
JAMES KNIVETON, SENIOR CORPORATE FX DEALER, CONVERA, MELBOURNE
"The market seems to be reacting to the strong showing by Trump so far in Georgia but until results start rolling in from the more urban suburbs it remains too close to call."
"It is too early to call any of these races and to make any real projections on the results so far but the US dollar has regained a lot of ground lost recently, the market is clearly settling in for a long night"
"Risk currencies such as the AUD that appreciated ahead of a tightening race are having a pullback as Trump racks up some early wins. US Treasury yields are advancing as well reacting to the same sentiment."
BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN
“As the early results come in, even though none of them are that surprising, we are seeing Treasury yields rising a little bit, the dollar strengthening, bitcoin up; kind of a classic Trump trade. Treasury yields because of a market belief that Trump might be worse for deficit, the dollar’s move because of expectations of new tariffs, and bitcoin, well, Trump is a crypto ‘bro’. There’s not a lot of conviction in these moves; it seems like these are little pops. If conviction is high these trends move faster and farther, but this doesn’t have that snowballing feel to it. It’s still early days in terms of results.”
ADAM TURNQUIST, CHIEF TECHNICAL STRATEGIST, LPL FINANCIAL, CHARLOTTE, NC
"If anything, to read through (results out so far) it is maybe more toward Trump than anything, so futures and yields are moving higher . But it's so early to see any kind of momentum"
"I traded the 2016 election, but I am not doing it this time. I made a little bit of money, but it was a long way from my high water mark with a lot of volatility."
(Compiled by the Global Finance & Markets Breaking News team)
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