Macquarie lowers oil price outlook for 2024 on weaker demand
Adds detail, context and adds Macquarie forecasts to table
Sept 13 (Reuters) -Macquarie cut its oil price outlook for 2024,citing lower demand especially driven by China as the key factor along with a well supplied oil market.
It lowered its price view for both Brent and WTI by $2 per barrel to $80 a barrel and $75 per barrel respectively for the rest of the year.
"As we enter shoulder and turnaround season, the 'last hurrah' for oil in the form of Q3 tightness is quickly fading as our balances contemplate heavy oversupply across the next five quarters," Macquarie noted.
Meanwhile, both the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their demand growth forecasts for 2024.
"Yet, the market is not without upside potential, given recent strife in Libya and a series of geopolitical distortions in recent years," Macquarie added.
"US presidential elections also represent a source of potential volatility (in either direction), with certain permutations of outcomes/policies potentially amplifying latent supply risk."
Macquarie left the oil price outlook for 2025 unchanged with Brent averaging $69 per barrel and WTI averaging $65 per barrel.
Oil prices extended their rally on Friday and were on course for a weekly gain, sparked by output disruption in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Francine forced the evacuation of production platforms. O/R
Brent crude futures LCOc1 rose by 52 cents, to $72.48 per barrel by 0619 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 rose by 60 cents, to $69.31 a barrel.
Earlier this month, Bank of America Global Research downgraded its 2025 Brent price forecast by $5 to $75 per barrel.
The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2024 and 2025 average prices per barrel for Brent and WTI (in $ per barrel):
Brokerage/Agency | Brent | WTI | Forecasts as of | ||
2024 | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | ||
Macquarie | $80 | $69 | $75 | $65 | Sept. 12 |
BofA | $80 | $75 | $76 | $71 | Sept.6 |
JP Morgan | $82 | $75 | $77 | $71 | Sept.5 |
NAB | $82.7 | $80 | - | - | Sept.5 |
HSBC | $81.7 | $76.5 | $77.9 | $73.5 | Sept.4 |
Goldman Sachs | $82 | $77 | $78 | $72 | Aug. 27 |
Citi Research | $80 | $60 | $76 | $57 | Aug. 25 |
DNB | $82 | $77 | - | - | Aug. 20 |
Barclays | $87 | $90 | $83 | $86 | June. 27 |
BMI | $85 | $82 | $82 | $79 | Aug. 22 |
Morgan Stanley | $75 | $71 | - | Jan. 3 | |
JP Morgan | $83 | $75 | $79 | $71 | Aug. 1 |
* indicates end-of-period forecast
# current as of given date, may not indicate date of revision
** JPMorgan 2025 Brent and WTI forecasts were introduced in Nov, 2023.
For a table of crude price forecasts as per Reuters latest monthly poll, see OILPOLL
Reporting by Rahul Paswan in Bengaluru;Editing by Elaine Hardcastle
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