Huge US corn, soy yields will be put to the test by annual crop tour - Braun
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Aug 15 (Reuters) -Record yield expectations have been laid out for U.S. corn and soybeans, and it will be up to next week’s Pro Farmer Crop Tour to either reinforce or reject this narrative.
The crop tour, in its 32nd year, will run from Monday through Thursday. About 100 scouts will hit well over 1,000 corn and soybean fields across Illinois, Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio and South Dakota to determine yield potential.
I will join the western half of the tour for the 11th time and ninth consecutive year. Knowing the route so well should help me recognize an exceptional crop versus an average one.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture this week pegged corn and soybean yields at 183.1 and 53.2 bushels per acre, respectively. These would top prior records of 177.3 bushels for corn (2023) and 51.9 for soybeans (2016).
Five of the seven tour states are projected to set or tie record corn yields, including Illinois, Iowa and Indiana, which account for 39% of total corn production. Illinois is seen at 225 bpa, some 11 bpa over the previous high.
The task of tour scouts this year is to confirm the strong potential by measuring three metrics in each corn field: ear population, length of grain fill on the ear and the number of kernel rows around the ear. Simply put, the more kernels packed on to the ear, both lengthwise and widthwise, the bigger the yields could be.
The highest average Illinois corn yield measured by the tour was 196.96 bpa in 2014, a banner year for the state and one the market has been comparing with 2024 when it comes to price and fundamental patterns.
The highest tour yield for Iowa corn was 190.76 and Indiana’s high was 193.48 bpa, both in 2021.
These numbers are important to highlight because they do not necessarily match official USDA records, which show Illinois’ high at 214 bpa in 2022, Iowa 204 bpa in 2021 and Indiana 203 in 2023.
The differences arise because the tour routes do not cover all production areas in each state, leading to sampling biases. It is critical to analyze tour data with past tour data and not with USDA data since they are not directly comparable.
I will be posting nightly state results on X throughout the tour and will be providing comparisons with past years. I and other scouts will be posting crop photos from the field using hashtag “#pftour24.”
SOYBEANS AND OTHER TOUR TIDBITS
The tour uses a rough corn yield calculation, though it does not estimate soybean yield. Instead, scouts approximate the number of pods in a three-by-three-foot plot of soybean plants, which is meant to gauge yield potential.
USDA predicts Illinois, Indiana and Ohio will notch record bean yields this year. All three states’ highest tour pod counts were in the 1,300-range, something to keep in mind when reviewing this year’s data.
Although the Corn Belt has largely enjoyed benign, yield-supportive weather this summer, things were not perfect everywhere. Parts of the western Belt, including Minnesota, endured an extremely wet spring following planting, potentially capping yields.
The tour should pay particular attention to Minnesota, where crop conditions have been lower than in other major states. USDA pegs Minnesota corn yield at 185 bpa, the same as last year, but down 10 bpa from its record, and beans at 49 would be 1 bpa above 2023.
Advisory service and tour host Pro Farmer, a division of Farm Journal Media, normally publishes a national yield estimate and select state forecasts the Friday after tour wraps. Those numbers incorporate tour findings along with other yield-influencing factors.
Pro Farmer’s national yield estimates tend to come in below those of USDA, particularly for corn, having done so in 12 of the last 15 Augusts by an average close to 4 bpa.
But USDA’s September corn yield forecast is often lower than in August (nine of the last 15 years), which is why paying close attention to the tour and its results could prove fruitful in anticipating the direction of this year's yields.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Editing by Rod Nickel
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