Harris narrows gap against Trump in PredictIt betting market
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HARRIS NARROWS GAP AGAINST TRUMP IN PREDICTIT BETTING MARKET
Vice President Kamala Harris' chances of winning the November U.S. presidential election seem to have flattened out in recent days, just below former President Donald Trump in what amounts to a coin flip, according to the PredictIt online politics betting website.
With 99 days to go before the Nov. 5 vote, contracts for a Trump victory are trading at 54 cents, with a potential $1 payout. That's down from a peak of almost 70 cents on July 15.
Contracts for a Harris victory are trading at 49 cents, mostly unchanged over the past four days.
Oddschecker.com shows odds for a Trump win at -147, meaning risking $147 could win $100, translating to about a 59.5% probability. Harris odds are at +164, meaning a $164 bet could win $100, equivalent to about a 38% probability.
Fresh polling from the Wall Street Journal published on Friday showed Trump leading 49% to 47% in a two-person matchup against Harris, with a margin of error of +/-3.1 percentage points.
Harris's election campaign said on Sunday said it has raised $200 million and signed up 170,000 new volunteers in the week since she became the Democratic Party's presumptive presidential candidate after President Joe Biden gave up his candidacy on July 21.
A nonprofit research project based in New Zealand, PredictIt is operated by Victoria University of Wellington, which shares data with other universities to study topics including microeconomics and game theory.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in May proposed a rule that would ban listed contracts used to bet on U.S. elections and other major real world events.
(Noel Randewich)
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Election odds https://tmsnrt.rs/4fnZQ0g
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