German economy expected to contract again in 2024, economy minister says
German economy seen contracting for second consecutive year
It is likely to be only G7 economy to contract in 2024
Private consumption seen underpinning recovery in 2025
German inflation seen continuing to slow in 2025-26
By Maria Martinez
BERLIN, Oct 9 (Reuters) -Germany's economy is expected to contract by 0.2% in 2024, the economy ministry said on Wednesday, becoming the only member of the Group of Seven (G7) major industrial democracies to post shrinking output this year, as was also the case in 2023.
The government is cutting its forecast from a previous projection of 0.3% growth for this year, as the expected recovery in the second half of the year failed to materialise.
Germany's economy was already the weakest among its large euro zone peers and other G7 countries last year, with a 0.3% decline in gross domestic product.
If economic output contracts for a second consecutive year, which last happened in 2002-2003 when exporting and manufacturing industries struggled, Germany would be the only G7 economy in contraction, according to the latest projections of the International Monetary Fund.
Germany's economy contracted in the second quarter, sparking fears of a possible recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
Early indicators such as industrial production and business climate suggest that the economic downturn has continued into the second half of the year, the ministry said.
The economy has not grown strongly since 2018 due to its structural problems and geopolitical challenges, German Economy Minister Robert Habeck said in his presentation of the forecasts.
To counter the cyclical and structural challenges, the German government has agreed a growth package of 49 measures to stimulate the economy.
"If they are implemented, the economy will be stronger and more people will come back to work," Habeck said.
The plans must be approved by both houses of parliament later this year. That means the coalition government need votes from opposition conservatives in the upper house Bundesrat, which represents Germany's 16 federal states.
BACK TO GROWTH IN 2025
By the turn of the year, the growth dynamics should gradually revive again, the ministry said, expecting 1.1% growth for 2025, up from 1.0% previously.
Growth is expected to resume in 2025 due mainly to increased private consumption resulting from higher wage settlements, falling inflation and tax relief, the ministry said. Lower interest rates should also stimulate consumption, it said.
For the first time, the government has included a forecast for 2026, when Germany's economy is seen expanding by 1.6%.
Inflation is expected to decline further, slowing to 2.2% in 2024 from 5.9% last year, then to 2.0% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
Reporting by Maria Martinez
Editing by Gareth Jones
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
