Forint holds tight before renewed rate cuts, crown tests one-month low
By Anita Komuves
BUDAPEST, Sept 24 (Reuters) -The forint pulled back slightly on Tuesday to retreat further from a more than one-week high hit last week, with Hungary's central bank debating renewed interest rate cuts, while the crown also eased before another expected Czech rate reduction.
The Hungarian currency EURHUF= eased 0.3%, to 394.90 to the euro, returning to the middle of the range it has bounced around in the second half of the year.
The forint had firmed the past few weeks, to as strong as 392.90, before its retreat. Analysts and traders saw little scope for more weakening, barring any surprises from the central bank.
A Reuters poll of analysts expects the National Bank of Hungary (NBH) to cut its base rate by another 25 basis points (bps) to 6.50% on Tuesday. The bank had held steady on rates last month following 15 consecutive rate reductions.
"The forint is testing the 395-level ... the 25-bps-cut is taken for granted by most of the market, but there is always some movement in the forint's rate before the decision, this is normal," an FX trader in Budapest said.
"The cut has been priced in already, so that will most likely not move the forint's rate."
The Czech crown EURCZK= was testing a one-month low on Tuesday, edging down 0.1% and trading at 25.133 per euro before a central bank meeting on Wednesday at which markets widely expect another 25-bps interest rate cut.
Some analysts have said the crown might get a lift after the expected rate cut if the central bank sounds a hawkish tone, causing markets to scale back rate cut bets going ahead.
Both banks, which started reducing rates already last year, are convening after the U.S. Federal Reserve began its easing cycle last week with a larger than usual rate cut. The European Central Bank has also cut interest rates in recent months.
Elsewhere, the Polish zloty EURPLN= was up 0.11% and trading at 4.2680 versus the euro, at the stronger end of the range where it has been trading since mid-August.
"We expect calm performance from the złoty. EURPLN will probably remain in the range of 4.27-4.28," Polish state-owned development bank BGK wrote.
Stocks in the region firmed, with Warsaw .WIG20 leading gains as it added 1.82%.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1033 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.1330 | 25.1300 | -0.01% | -1.72% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 394.9000 | 394.8000 | -0.03% | -2.97% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2680 | 4.2725 | +0.11% | +1.79% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9758 | 4.9750 | -0.02% | -0.03% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0100 | 117.0600 | +0.04% | +0.20% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1581.59 | 1580.9800 | +0.04% | +11.85% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 73473.66 | 73060.07 | +0.57% | +21.20% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2328.51 | 2286.81 | +1.82% | -0.62% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17675.30 | 17601.71 | +0.42% | +14.99% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.2350 | 0.0090 | +107bps | +1bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.4320 | 0.0260 | +140bps | +1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7450 | 0.0050 | +155bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.6950 | -0.0040 | +253bps | +0bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.0970 | 0.0400 | +307bps | +3bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.4330 | 0.0390 | +324bps | +2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.71 | 3.42 | 3.11 | 4.29 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.43 | 6.07 | 5.66 | 6.43 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.75 | 5.39 | 4.76 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Additional reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague and Karol Badohal in Warsaw; Editing by Kim Coghill
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