Forint drops after two days of gains, markets see rate cut pause
PRAGUE, Oct 21 (Reuters) -Central Europe's currencies retreated on Monday, with the forint dropping the most as it snapped a two-day winning streak ahead of the Hungarian central bank's meeting this week, where markets are counting on a pause in interest rate cuts.
The Hungarian forint fell beyond the psychological 400-per-euro level this month, for the first time since March 2023, and hasstruggled to regain ground as global financial markets haveturned more risk averse and the U.S. dollar's strength is weighingon central Europe's currencies.
Hungary's central bank is widely expected to keep its main rate at 6.50% HUINT=ECI when it meets on Tuesday as recent falls in the forint haveraised fears of a rebound in price growth.
The forint firmed past 400 last week after Deputy Central Bank Governor Barnabas Virag said that the bank may pause its rate cuts. But the move was short-lived.
"Virag managed to push it towards firming a bit last week, but now the forint is going with the global flow," a Budapest trader said.
"Tomorrow's rate decision, a hold, is already priced in, so that will not really move the forint's rate. But if the bank reiterates that it is willing to keep rates at this level, that could help the forint firm past 400 again."
The forint EURHUF= had dropped 0.4% to 401.25 to the euro by 0821 GMT.
In Poland, the zloty EURPLN= also fell, losing 0.35% to 4.319 to again edge down toward two-month lows beyond 4.32 hit earlier in October. The Czech crown EURCZK= dipped 0.2% to 25.27 to the euro.
Currencies are facing pressure from a stronger dollar before U.S. elections in two weeks, with polls showing rising odds of former President Donald Trump winning.
"The Polish currency is influenced by global factors," Bank Millennium said. "In addition to (incoming) data, market sentiment will also be determined by (election) polls from the United States."
Polish data on Monday gave no support to the zloty, with industrial output falling in September and producer prices decreasing more than expected. Unlike other central banks in the region, Poland paused its rate cuts in the past year, lifting the zloty versus its peers.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1021 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.2700 | 25.2180 | -0.21% | -2.25% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 401.2500 | 399.7000 | -0.39% | -4.50% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3190 | 4.3040 | -0.35% | +0.59% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9730 | 4.9735 | +0.01% | +0.03% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 117.0000 | 116.9900 | -0.01% | +0.21% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1626.85 | 1627.3400 | -0.03% | +15.05% |
Budapest | .BUX | 74525.81 | 74228.20 | +0.40% | +22.94% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2299.85 | 2303.33 | -0.15% | -1.84% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 17432.43 | 17405.74 | +0.15% | +13.41% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.3990 | 0.0170 | +128bps | +1bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.6320 | -0.0480 | +159bps | -7bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.9170 | 0.0240 | +170bps | -1bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 5.0080 | 0.0070 | +289bps | +0bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3470 | 0.0260 | +331bps | +1bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.6310 | 0.0140 | +342bps | -2bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.78 | 3.46 | 3.27 | 4.12 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.76 | 6.06 | 5.80 | 6.37 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.81 | 5.46 | 4.97 | 5.85 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
************************************************************** | |||||
Reporting by Jason Hovet in Prague, Anita Komuves in Budapest, Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk in Warsaw; Editing by Sumana Nandy
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