Dollar slumps ahead of payrolls revisions, Powell speech
Updated at 1000 EDT
By Karen Brettell
NEW YORK, Aug 20 (Reuters) -The dollar fell to its lowest level since January on Tuesday as investors awaited revisions to U.S. payrolls dataon Wednesday and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech to the Jackson Hole economic conference in Wyoming later in the week.
Traders are speculating the revisions to the U.S. government's jobs data could show that between 600,000 and 1 million fewer jobs were created from April 2023 to March 2024.
A downward revision of 1 million jobs would reduce employment creation to 1.6 million jobs for the year, from 2.6 million, said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York.
"That's why I think that the market is still pricing in about a 25% chance of a 50-basis-point cut in September," Chandler said. "People thought the Fed was behind the curve in raising rates, and now many people think the Fed is behind the curve in cutting rates."
Traders have reduced bets that the Fed would cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by half a percentage point at its Sept. 17-18 meeting following hotter-than-expected shelter inflation and strong retail sales in July.
Data showing the job market was weaker than previously thought could increase concerns the U.S. economy is facing a potentially worse downturn than the current expectation for a "soft landing" in which inflation is tamed without a recession.
Traders in early August aggressively priced for imminent rate cuts after weaker-than-anticipated job growth andan unexpected increase in the unemployment rate in July raised concerns about a possible recession.
A 25-basis-point rate cut in September is seen as having about a75% probability, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders are pricing in around 220 basis points of cuts by the end of 2025. FEDWATCH
Traders will focus on comments by Powell on Friday at the Kansas City Fed's Jackson Holeeconomic symposium for any new clues on the likely size of a rate cut next month, and whether reductions in borrowing costsare likely to happen at each subsequent Fed meeting.
With the government due to release the August employment report and key inflation data before the Fed's next meeting, Powell may be reluctant on Friday to offer much clarity on the outlook for rates.
A slim majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at each of its remaining three meetings of 2024.
The Fed is also due to release the minutes from its July 30-31meeting on Wednesday.
STRONGER YEN
The dollar index =USD was last down 0.22% at 101.65, having reached 101.62, its lowest level since Jan. 2. The euro EUR=EBS rose 0.14% to $1.1101 and climbed as high as $1.1105, its strongest level since Dec. 28.
Sterling GBP=D3 strengthened 0.27% to $1.3023 and reached $1.3030, the highest level since July 17.
The dollar weakened 0.33% to 146.09 Japanese yen JPY=EBS after reaching 145.20 on Monday, the lowest level since Aug. 7.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to discuss the BOJ's decision last month to raise interest rates when he appears in parliament on Friday.
Data next week is expected to show that Japan's consumer inflation rate picked up in July for a third consecutive month, a Reuters poll of 18 economists showed, keeping the central bank on course to consider another rate hike after lifting short-term rates to 0.25% last month.
Sweden's crown rose despite a rate cut by the Swedish central bank. It also said it could speed up the policy easing if price pressures did not pick up.
It was last up 0.72% versus the dollar at 10.253 SEK= and reached 10.249, the strongest level since March 14.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin BTC= gained 3.08% to $60,916.00.
Reporting by Karen Brettell; Additional reporting by Stefano Rebaudo; Editing by Paul Simao
Aloqador aktivlar
Eng oxirgi yangiliklar
Javobgarlikdan voz kechish: XM Group korxonalari har biri faqat ijro xizmatlarini koʻrsatadi va onlayn savdo platformamizdan foydalanish huquqini beradi, bu odamga veb-saytda yoki veb-sayt orqali mavjud boʻlgan kontentni koʻrish va/yoki undan foydalanishga ruxsat beradi hamda uni oʻzgartirishga moʻljallanmagan va uni oʻzgartirmaydi yoki kengaytirmaydi. Bunday kirish va foydalanish huquqi doimo quyidagilarga boʻysunadi: (i) Shartlar va qoidalar; (ii) Risklar haqida ogohlantirish; va (iii) Javobgarlikni toʻliq rad etish. Shuning uchun bunday kontent umumiy maʼlumot sifatida taqdim etiladi. Xususan, shuni esda tutingki, bizning onlayn savdo platformamiz mazmuni moliyaviy bozorlarda biror bitimni amalga oshirishga oid maslahat yoki taklif emas. Har qanday moliyaviy bozorda savdo qilish sizning kapitalingiz uchun jiddiy risk darajasini oʻz ichiga oladi.
Onlayn savdo platformamizda chop etilgan barcha materiallar faqat taʼlim/axborot maqsadlari uchun moʻljallangan va unda moliyaviy, investitsiya soligʻi yoki savdo maslahatlari va tavsiyalar; yoki bizning savdo narxlarimizning qaydlari; yoki har qanday moliyaviy vositalar bilan bitim tuzish maslahati yoki taklifi; yoki sizga kerak boʻlmagan moliyaviy reklama aksiyalari hisoblanmaydi
Har qanday uchinchi tomon kontenti, shuningdek XM tomonidan tayyorlangan kontent, masalan: fikrlar, yangiliklar, tadqiqotlar, tahlillar, narxlar va boshqa maʼlumotlar yoki bu veb-saytda joylashgan uchinchi tomon saytlariga havolalar umumiy bozor sharhi sifatida "boricha" taqdim etiladi va investitsiya maslahatini tashkil etmaydi. Har qanday kontent investitsiya tadqiqoti sifatida talqin qilinsa, siz bunday kontentni investitsiya tadqiqotlarining mustaqilligini ragʻbatlantirish uchun moʻljallangan qonun talablariga muvofiq moʻljallanmagan va tayyorlanmaganligini eʼtiborga olishingiz va qabul qilishingiz kerak, shuning uchun unga tegishli qonunlar va qoidalarga muvofiq marketing kommunikatsiyasi sifatida qaraladi. Mustaqil boʻlmagan investitsiya tadqiqoti va yuqoridagi maʼlumotlarga oid risk haqida ogohlantirishimizni oʻqib chiqqaningizga va tushunganingizga ishonch hosil qiling, unga bu yerdan kirish mumkin.
