Disinflation, US election, tech influences should keep EUR/USD heavy
Oct 21 (Reuters) -After nearing the 200-DMA Monday EUR/USD turned lower despite slightly tighter German-U.S. spreads US2DE2=RR as influences from German producer prices, U.S. elections polls and technicals presented downside risks to the euro.
German producer prices fell more than estimated for September, which reinforced the ECB stating the disinflationary process is well on track last Thursday.
Slovak central bank chief Peter Kazimir, who has typically leaned hawkish, said Monday he is increasingly confident the disinflation path is on solid footing.
The data and central bank rhetoric could put the ECB on a more aggressive cutting path than the Fed especially after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said she sees gradual rate cuts. The diverging central bank paths could weigh down EUR/USD.
Terminal rate spreads for the Fed SRAM26 and ECB FEIZ5 are trending in the dollar's favor and sit near critical support in the -147bps/-146bps area. Should that support break, additional weight may be put upon EUR/USD.
Recent U.S. election polls from realclearpolling.com indicate former President Trump is leading or tied in many battleground states, which could drive further gains for U.S. yields US2YT=RR and the dollar.
Technicals highlight downside risks. EUR/USD trades below the 200-DMA and is consolidating recent losses while daily and monthly RSIs imply downward momentum.
Euro zone PMI is due on Thursday. A downside surprise would suggest economic growth continues to struggle and would bolster the case for deeper ECB rate cuts.
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
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