Currencies hold tight as markets eye US election
By Anna Wlodarczak-Semczuk and Anita Komuves
WARSAW/BUDAPEST, Oct 28 (Reuters) -The Hungarian forint and Polish zloty were hovering around recent lows on Monday amid uncertainty about the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election, while Czech markets were closed for a public holiday.
With no major events planned in central Europe in the first half of the week, traders were focusing on political news from the U.S.
"This is not a story about the forint. The entire emerging market is under pressure as the U.S. presidential election is approaching - that is a huge question mark," a Budapest-based trader said.
"I do not expect a big strengthening from the forint, but it won't get too weak either. I think it will keep trading between 400 and 410, as market sentiment is for the time being driven by the U.S. ... election and the uncertainty it brings."
Hungary's forint EURHUF= was unchanged at 404.1 per euro at 0805 GMT.
Standard and Poor's affirmed Hungary's credit rating on Friday, but such a decision was already priced in, the trader added.
The U.S. dollar is headed for its biggest monthly gain since April 2022 in November thanks to solid data from the American economy, as investors no longer expect a 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve.
It was also supported by anticipation that Donald Trump could win a second term as U.S. president, as his tax and tariff policies are considered inflationary, which markets anticipate would keep U.S. rates high and hit trading partner currencies.
Markets are awaiting data from the region in the second half of the week, with flash GDP for the third quarter in the Czech Republic and Hungary to be published on Wednesday and PMI surveys expected on Friday.
Investors will also be watching flash CPI data from Poland on Thursday as well as a series of data from core markets, including the U.S. payrolls report.
In Poland, the government is due to discuss amendments to the 2024 budget on Tuesday, which may put pressure on domestic bonds, Bank Millennium analysts wrote in a note.
The zloty EURPLN= was 0.1% weaker at 4.3510 per euro.
"The zloty still remains and will remain under pressure from sellers in the coming days. The EUR/PLN exchange rate fluctuates around the level of 4.35 and in the next few sessions it may, in our opinion, test a technical barrier located two cents higher," Bank Millennium said.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1005 CET | ||||
CURRENCIES | ||||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | |||
EURCZK= | Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.3350 | 25.2770 | -0.23% | -2.50% |
EURHUF= | Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 404.1000 | 404.1000 | +0.00% | -5.18% |
EURPLN= | Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.3510 | 4.3470 | -0.09% | -0.15% |
EURRON= | Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9730 | 4.9740 | +0.02% | +0.03% |
EURRSD= | Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9300 | 117.0500 | +0.10% | +0.27% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | ||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | |||
close | change | in 2024 | ||||
.PX | Prague | .PX | 1647.72 | 1647.7200 | +0.00% | +16.53% |
.BUX | Budapest | .BUX | 74512.97 | 74263.78 | +0.34% | +22.92% |
.WIG20 | Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2260.10 | 2245.25 | +0.66% | -3.54% |
.BETI | Bucharest | .BETI | 17432.41 | 17473.73 | -0.24% | +13.41% |
Spread | Daily | |||||
vs Bund | change in | |||||
Czech Republic | spread | |||||
CZ2YT=RR | 2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.4400 | 0.0000 | +129bps | +0bps |
CZ5YT=RR | 5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.7830 | 0.0260 | +166bps | +1bps |
CZ10YT=RR | 10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 4.0520 | 0.0000 | +174bps | -2bps |
Poland | ||||||
PL2YT=RR | 2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9620 | 0.0130 | +281bps | +1bps |
PL5YT=RR | 5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.4570 | 0.0290 | +333bps | +2bps |
PL10YT=RR | 10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.8440 | 0.0490 | +353bps | +3bps |
FORWARD RATE AGREEMENTS | ||||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | |||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 3.82 | 3.57 | 3.43 | 4.08 | |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.86 | 6.60 | 6.44 | 6.42 | |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.70 | 5.30 | 4.87 | 5.85 | |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | |||||
************************************************************** |
Editing by Mark Heinrich
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