Crop Watch: Rain needed to fend off heat-driven yield losses -Braun
The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.
By Karen Braun
PARIS, July 29 (Reuters) -Last week was the driest yet of the growing season for U.S. Crop Watch corn and soybeans, though yield expectations largely held as most areas enjoyed comfortable temperatures.
However, heat is expected to prevail this week, especially in western areas, though many spots in the main Corn Belt will have rain chances this week. That could be associated with strong and potentially damaging storms.
Western Crop Watch locations have been dry for about three weeks now, so any moisture captured over the next several days could preserve yield potential heading into early August, which could turn dry again according to Sunday’s short-term outlook from U.S. forecasters.
Crop Watch producers continue to be more pleased with soybean prospects versus those for corn, and some of the eastern Belt beans could notch record yields if rains materialize in the next couple of weeks.
Most of the Crop Watch corn has come through pollination, though the producers are cautious about predicting large yields because of unfavorable weather earlier in the season and uncertainty around grain filling given a warm August forecast.
Crop Watch producers are rating crop conditions and yield potential on 1-to-5 scales. The condition scores are a primarily visual assessment similar to the U.S. government’s where 1 is very poor, 3 is average and 5 is excellent.
Yield potential is meant to capture both visible and non-visible elements. On this scale, 3 is around farm average yield, 4 is solidly above average and 5 is among the best crops ever.
The 11-field, average corn yield dropped to 3.27 from 3.34 last week mainly on a cut in western Illinois, where storm damage from a couple weeks ago is still being assessed. Corn conditions jumped to 3.5 from 3.45, led by increases in North Dakota and southeastern Illinois.
Average soybean yield slipped to 3.59 from 3.61 in the prior week as trims in North Dakota and western Illinois offset an increase in Nebraska. But soybeans are still looking visually healthy as improvements in Iowa helped bean conditions climb to 3.89 from 3.84 last week, marking the best soy conditions since mid-June.
No score reductions were made in Kansas this week, but the producer is certain those are coming next week after several more days of dry and scorching weather. The beans there are expected to suffer more than the corn.
The following are the states and counties of the 2024 Crop Watch corn and soybean fields: Kingsbury, South Dakota; Freeborn, Minnesota; Burt, Nebraska; Rice, Kansas; Audubon, Iowa; Cedar, Iowa; Warren, Illinois; Crawford, Illinois; Tippecanoe, Indiana; Fairfield, Ohio. The North Dakota soybeans are in Griggs County and the corn is in Stutsman County.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
Editing by Mark Potter
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