Carry trades still having big influence on FX markets
Sept 24 (Reuters) -Carry trades are still having a big influence on FX markets with an increasing amount of central bank stimulus measures fuelling gambling throughout financial markets which is encouraging currency traders to return to trades they recently exited.
The purge of interest rate plays that surrounded changes to Japanese monetary policy in July drastically reduced investments previously weighing on funding currencies like yen, Swiss franc, Thai baht and Taiwan dollar, while the key elements that support carry traders remain intact.
Risk appetite is actually stronger now than it was in July with MSCI world equity index advancing to a record high. Volatility has sunk with USD/JPY settling within 140-150, and EUR/USD unable to break out on the upside. Slightly elevated vols for currencies like pound and New Zealand dollar are largely due to demand for them resulting from the establishment of new carry trades.
Mexico's peso - at the heart of carry trades before July - has rallied, and South Africa's rand, which is making big gains, appears to be the new market darling. Hungary's forint, which traded to a six-month peak in August versus the dollar, is more evidence of the will to invest in free-floating and higher yielding currencies.
If central banks continue to ease at the rapid pace expected, then carry trades should flourish with funding currencies coming under much more pressure, while those offering higher returns like the rand could rise much further.
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World stocks and FX vols https://tmsnrt.rs/4guMsIp
Jeremy Boulton is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own, editing by Ed Osmond
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