Technical Analysis – USDJPY's range-trading might end this week
- USDJPY is in the green today as dollar shows signs of life
- Market participants are preparing for a crucial week
- Momentum indicators are inconclusive at this stage
USDJPY is edging slightly higher today, after yesterday's sizeable green candle, as dollar bulls are showing signs of life following a rather bearish session on Friday. The snap elections called by the newly installed prime minister Ishiba and the suggestion by Fed Chairman Powell that the next rate cut could be to the tune of 25bps have allowed the dollar to breathe better ahead of some key US data releases this week.
In the meantime, the momentum indicators are mostly directionless. Specifically, the RSI is hovering around its midpoint, confirming the current market indecisiveness. Similarly, the Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) is stuck below its 25 threshold and hence points to a purely trendless USDJPY. Interestingly, the stochastic oscillator is battling with its moving average, a tad above its midpoint. Should it manage to edge higher, it could be seen as a signal of renewed bullish pressure in USDJPY.
Should the bulls remain hungry, they could try to push USDJPY above both the September 7, 2022 high and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 144.99 and 145.64 respectively. They could then have the chance to record a higher high and test the support set by the 146.65-147.71 area. This is populated by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the October 21, 2022 - January 16, 2023 downtrend and the August 11, 1998 high, and it is probably the bulls’ last obstacle to returning to the 150.00 area.
On the flip side, the bears are keen to recapture the market reins and push USDJPY back below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 142.49. Then could then stage a sell-off towards the 139.38-139.68 range, which is defined by the July 14, 2022 high and the 50% Fibonacci retracement, and, if successful, be able to record a new 2024 low.
To sum up, USDJPY is range-trading, but this week’s rich US data calendar could prove pivotal for the next leg in USDJPY.
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