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Comments & Briefs

XM Research - 2 days ago

Quick Brief – Core PCE holds steady at 2.6% y/y

Both headline and core PCE price indices hold steady Dollar barely reacts to the release Investors to pay more attention to next week’s NFPs Both the headline and core PCE rates for July held steady at 2.5% and 2.6% y/y, respectively, confounding expectations of minor rebounds to 2.6% and 2.7%. The US dollar barely reacted at the time of the release as the Fed’s favorite inflation metrics corroborate investors’ view that the Fed will proceed with a rate reduction in Septembe
XM Research - 2 days ago

Daily Comment – Dollar edges up ahead of PCE inflation as stocks drift

All eyes on US core PCE and consumption as bets for 50-bps cut stall Dollar headed for weekly gains but Nasdaq has disappointing week Euro on the backfoot as soft Eurozone CPI cements September cut Big Tech woes weigh on Wall Street The US dollar looks set to pare its monthly losses as it heads for its first weekly gain since mid-July amid more evidence that the US economy is humming along nicely.
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XM Research - 3 days ago

Daily Comment – Nvidia earnings fail to buoy markets, focus turns to US data

Nvidia slumps in after-hours trading as earnings don’t excite Equities mixed as attention turns to US data for direction Kiwi outperforms, euro slips on soft German and Spanish CPI figures No post-Nvidia boost for equities Nvidia’s much anticipated earnings results for the second quarter failed to deliver on the very high expectations even as the chip giant saw its revenue more than double from a year ago.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Quick Brief – Nvidia earnings key for reviving stalled rebound and broader risk-on rally  

Nvidia earnings look set to inject some life into subdued markets Another quarter of triple-digit earnings growth is anticipated But will this be enough to revive the AI rally?   Nvidia is the last of the Magnificent 7 to report its Q2 results, but definitely not the least. The chip giant is seen as a bellwether for other AI stocks as its dominant position in the industry means that any changes in demand will be reflected in Nvidia’s revenue.
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XM Research - 4 days ago

Daily Comment – Markets cautious as Nvidia earnings and key US data loom

Dollar pauses slide as jobs and inflation data awaited Yen pulls back but hawkish BoJ signals keep it elevated Wall Street awaits Nvidia, oil retreats on demand worries Dollar awaits key data for direction The US dollar extended its slump against all its major peers on Tuesday, as in the absence of any top-tier data and shocking headlines, investors continued to digest Powell’s dovish stance at Jackson Hole.
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XM Research - 5 days ago

Daily Comment – Rate cut euphoria tempered by geopolitics as oil surges

Mood turns cautious amid geopolitical uncertainty in Libya and Gaza Fears of supply disruptions drive up oil prices, S&P 500 closes lower China concerns also weigh but European stocks turn positive as data awaited Geopolitical risks take over as oil rallies Equity markets were mixed on Tuesday and the US dollar consolidated as investors turned cautious ahead of the week’s main events amid renewed fears about disruptions to oil supply.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Quick brief – WTI oil prints double bottom amid rising geopolitical risks

Geopolitical risks are not going away anytime soon; may keep supporting oil prices WTI crude oil creates bullish trend pattern; confirmation awaited above $78.30.   Israel’s military and the Iranian-backed Hezbollah army exchanged one of their heaviest waves of rockets in ten months across southern Lebanon on Sunday, helping crude oil prices to stage another bull race on Monday.
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Quick Brief – Gloomy German Ifo survey weighs on euro as dollar rebounds

Germany’s ifo Institute warns economy is “falling into crisis” Jump in US durable goods orders aid dollar’s recovery   Worries are mounting about Europe’s largest economy after the President of the ifo Institute, Clemens Fuest, warned that Germany is “increasingly falling into crisis” in the latest monthly survey report. The ifo business climate index in August fell to the lowest since February, although the reading of 86.6 was slightly above forecasts of 86.0. Speakin
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XM Research - 6 days ago

Daily Comment – Powell signals it’s time to cut; dollar sinks but risk rally muted

Powell says the time has come for rate cuts, pushing yields and dollar lower But cautious rally in stocks as Nvidia earnings, inflation data awaited Oil jumps amid fresh escalation between Israel and Hezbollah Powell green lights rate cuts Fed Chair Jerome Powell locked in a September rate cut on Friday, using his Jackson Hole address to signal the Fed’s long-awaited pivot toward an easing cycle.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Market Comment – Markets position ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Dollar rebounds despite jobless claims increase Traders position for Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Yen rebounds as BoJ’s Ueda appears willing to continue hiking rates Wall Street slips as tech shares weigh, gold pulls back Fed cut bets readjusted ahead of Powell’s speech The US dollar rebounded against all but one of its major peers on Thursday, with the only exception being the British pound.
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XM Research - 1 week ago

Market Comment – Dovish Fed and labor data weigh on dollar

Fed minutes reveal some members wanted a July cut Nonfarm payroll growth revised down by the most since 2009 PMIs in focus ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech Wall Street gains ground, oil extends slide Dollar slips as traders ramp up Fed cut bets The dollar extended its slide against its major counterparts on Wednesday, as the minutes of the July 30-31 Fed gathering revealed that officials are strongly leaning towards a September rate cut, with some members being willing
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Dollar looks at the Fed minutes for a small boost

Dollar weakness dominates the FX space Today’s Fed minutes could halt the euro/dollar rally Markets are gearing up to the Powell's Jackson Hole speech Oil prices remain under pressure  Dollar underperformance continues The euro continues to take advantage of the US dollar’s weakness by trading to the highest level since December 2023. This pair has managed to quickly climb above the critical 1.1032-1.1095 area, which has acted as strong resistance in the recent pas
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Dollar under pressure ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

Stocks in the green again as investors await the Jackson Hole gathering Economists look for strong Fed easing in 2024 despite recession talk dissipating Dollar remains on the back foot against most currencies Aussie fails to benefit from hawkish minutes; loonie could suffer from weak CPI Stocks still in the green Stocks continue to enjoy green sessions as the market is counting down to Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chairman Powell.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – Euro/dollar in critical area as the Jackson Hole Symposium nears

Stocks record strong weekly gains as the first Fed rate cut gets closer Markets are gradually preparing for the Jackson Hole gathering Euro/dollar trades within a critical resistance area Gold in demand as geopolitics generate headlines Stocks rally, enjoy the mixed US data Markets continue to recover after the recent rout, with US equities finishing last week with strong gains.
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XM Research - 2 weeks ago

Market Comment – US retail sales eyed after CPI report fails to set off fireworks

US inflation eases further in July but market reaction is muted Wall Street unimpressed, dollar mixed Yen and pound supported by upbeat GDP data US CPI does little for 50-bps cut hopes The steady recovery in risk appetite remains on track following yesterday's inflation numbers out of the US that seem to have somewhat underwhelmed investors.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market Comment – Markets perk up as soft PPI sets the tone ahead of US CPI

Stocks perk up after soft US producer prices, all eyes now on CPI report Kiwi slumps after RBNZ cuts rates and signals more to come Pound also slips on weaker-than-expected UK inflation data Gold holds near record high as dollar skids, ME tensions mount Mood brightens ahead of US CPI data The rebound in equity markets gained further traction on Tuesday after US producer prices rose less than expected in July, raising hopes that today’s report on consumer prices will also sur
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market Comment – Stocks edge up in calm before the storm

Stocks edge higher as gold benefits from geopolitical risks Pound rallies despite shock claimant count change French political issues return to the foreground RBNZ meeting could lead to significant kiwi underperformance Stocks edge higher as gold climb continues  It was another uneventful session yesterday with most stock indices continuing to recover from last week’s rout.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market Comment – Has the recent market angst fizzled out?

Improved market sentiment, Nasdaq 100 records weekly increase Yen holds recent strong gains as euro/dollar trades sideways today Rich data calendar this week, US CPI to dictate Fedspeak Gold and oil rally as Iran is expected to attack Israel Mood improves, yen maintains gains Despite the massively negative market sentiment at the beginning of last week, most stock indices managed to cover their weekly losses with the Nasdaq 100 actually closing in the green on a weekly basis
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market Comment – Sentiment improves after drop in US jobless claims

US dollar gains as data ease further recession concerns Aussie benefits the most, also helped by RBA’s Bullock Wall Street rebounds, oil and gold gain as well   Jobless claims drop the most in nearly a year The US dollar ended Thursday mixed against the other major currencies, even though it received a boost from the better-than-expected initial jobless claims for last week.
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XM Research - 3 weeks ago

Market Comment – BoJ Summary of Opinions reveals hawkish mood

Yen pullback stopped by hawkish BoJ Summary Fed cut bets remain dovish, traders await next week’s data Tech shares drag Wall Street down again Gold rebounds, but remains well off its records Yen remains in the spotlight The yen remained in the spotlight yesterday, with dollar/yen extending its recovery by as much as 2.5% after Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida played down the chance of another rate hike soon.
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