How Asia's markets could actually benefit from a Trump White House
Asia's exporters and supply chains more resilient to trade tensions
China ready to bolster domestic demand, India’s rapid growth attractive
Investors believe China is better prepared for Trump's trade policies
By Tom Westbrook, Samuel Shen
SINGAPORE, Nov 8 (Reuters) -Asia and even China are shaping up as surprisingly resilient investment markets as Donald Trump returns to the White House, with fund managers optimistic the region can withstand tariffs better than Europe.
Investors say Asia's exporters and supply chains have been able to better weather trade tensions, that China is ready to bolster its domestic demand and that India's rapid growth is attractive.
Equity desks in the region's financial centres reported little panic as voters ushered Trump back into office on a platform of tax cuts and protectionism - a contrast to sharp declines in European auto and renewable stocks.
"We saw gradual buying continue to pick up," said Shinji Ogawa, co-head of Japan cash equities sales at J.P. Morgan in Tokyo of trade on Thursday, with investors choosing industrials and financials.
"There are a few narratives that don't necessarily allow the 'Trump trade' to dictate everything," he said, pointing out rate rises on the horizon in Japan and a policy meeting in China this week expected to approve measures to boost the economy.
To be sure, the investment playbook derived from Trump's first term has been to buy U.S. stocks and their performance has drawn money out of Hong Kong and in to the S&P 500, dealers said.
But those with global mandates or wishing to diversify are sticking with the Asia bets they have, following a bit of a drawdown - mostly out of India - through October.
"With this environment where cost of dollar capital is unlikely to fall that much...then you're likely to see a lot more preference for growth," said Ken Peng, head of Asia investment strategy at Citi Wealth in Hong Kong.
"So India is going to continue to do that."
A bounce in Japanese automaker stocks .ITEQP.T and a surge in banks .IBNKS.T and shares of heavy machinery firms .IMCHN.T, sensitive to capital expenditure, showed buyers' focus there.
In Vietnam, shares in industrial park owner Becamex IJC.HM leapt in anticipation of firms expanding manufacturing while developer Kinh Bac City KBC.HM, which has a golf and hotel project with Trump's private conglomerate, hit its upward trading limit.
BETTER PREPARED
In Trump's first term, China bore the brunt of his aggressive trade policy, and growth and the yuan took a hit. This time around, investors think they know a little more about what to expect from Trump and say China is better prepared.
"China is now better prepared for any curbs, whether technologically, militarily, or financially," said Charles Wang, chairman of Shenzhen Dragon Pacific Capital Management Co.
"We have a better understanding of Trump...and Trump may also be more cautious in his game with China to avoid lose-lose scenarios."
Wang sold shares inChinese auto parts exporters, expecting a hit fromtariffs, but was sticking with investments in China's property sector, figuring it would receive help from the government regardless of Trump.
Other investors noted how China had lowered its share of exports by value headed directly to the U.S. from above 20% in the early 2000s to 15% last year. They also expect the government would respond to trade tensions by backing local spending.
"Higher tariffs would only strengthen China's dependency on domestic demand, which would translate into more supportive policies," said Dong Baozhen, chairman of Beijing-based asset manager Lingtong Shengtai.
FLOW STATE
China no longer publishes timely equity flow data, but Morgan Stanley said foreign-domiciled long-only funds bought $11.1 billion in Chinese shares through October, mostly early in the month.
Falls in the yuan indicate some outflow since but it's been limited by expectations Beijing would make a big stimulus announcement this month.
There is also possible upside for Asia in Trump's platform. BNP Paribas head of multi-asset investments for China Wei Li said Trump's domestic tax cuts could benefit Chinese companies by lifting demand.
Others said his isolationist foreign policy could leave room for China to improve relations with Europe, or even with the U.S. if Trump's deal-making instincts are engaged.
"Trump is a businessman at heart," said Robert St Clair, head of investment strategy at Fullerton Fund Management in Singapore. "He knows what's at stake," he said.
"He knows that China has significant market share in some key high value end industries...and China seems to be navigating the tariff stresses very well. He knows the tariff that he cannot push too far."
Monthly foreign investment flows into Asian equities https://tmsnrt.rs/3KYLE0Q
US election results graphic https://www.reuters.com/graphics/USA-ELECTION/RESULTS/zjpqnemxwvx/
Additional reporting by Summer Zhen in Hong Kong; Editing by Sam Holmes
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
