Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch
By Ankika Biswas and Pranav Kashyap
Nov 1 (Reuters) -Just days ahead of the Nov. 5 presidential election in the U.S.,investors are trying to gauge how stock markets will reactas polls and betting platforms point to a tight race between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
Harris' lead over the Republican has dwindled to a single percentage point in the final stretch of the presidential contest, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Tuesday.
A majority of a dozen analysts that Reuters spoke to expect a Trump returnto boost equity markets, with some favoringa split government.
Crypto stocks and small-caps have gained in the lead up to the election.
Trump's pledge to cut corporate taxes and decrease regulations could boost markets in the short-term if he wins, said Bel Air Investment Advisors Chairman Todd Morgan.
On the other hand, Trump has promised to double down on trade tariffs , especially against China, and " rescind all unspent funds" under a signature Biden-Harris climate law that includes hundreds of billions of dollars in subsidies for electric vehicles, solar and other clean energy technologies.
A divided Congress may be the best outcome as it limits what the president can accomplish and spend, according to Brian Klimke, chief market strategist at Cetera Investment Management.
Here's a list of stocks and sectors that could move on the election outcome:
TRUMP TRADE
BANKS: A Trump win or Republican sweep could lift Wall Street banks such as JPMorgan Chase JPM.N, Bank of America BAC.N and Wells Fargo WFC.N on improved domestic investment,looser regulations, domestic job additions and tax cuts, Bank of America analysts said.
However, concerns around a wider tradedeficit and tariffs are viewed as negative for the sector.
M&A beneficiaries include Goldman Sachs GS.N, Morgan Stanley MS.N, Lazard LAZ.N and Evercore EVR.N amid a more lenient approach to antitrust regulation enforcement.
CRYPTO: A more "receptive" regulatory approach to digital assets under a Trump win could benefit crypto stocks, according to TD Cowen analysts who highlighted the likelihood of the former presidentnaming a pro-crypto SEC chair.
MicroStrategy MSTR.O, Riot Platforms RIOT.O, MARA Holdings MARA.O, Hut 8 HUT.O and Bit Digital BTBT.O climbedbetween 3.4% and 45% in October.
ENERGY: Morgan Stanley analysts believe a Trump presidency could prioritize reducing the regulatory burden on domestic oil and gas production, while considering the possibility of morerestrictive trade policies.
"Trump's support for fossil fuel industries could benefit oil and gas stocks, as he would likely pursue policies that favor domestic energy production," said Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at Capital.com.
Trump could leverage authority to rapidly increase production levels, which would benefit exploration companies such as Chevron CVX.N, Exxon Mobil XOM.N, and ConocoPhillips COP.N.
Hecould also reverse the Biden administration's pause on permitting new LNG export projects, likely benefiting Baker Hughes BKR.N and Chart Industries GTLS.N. However, Trump'sproposed 60% tariff on imports from China could hit LNG exporters like Cheniere Energy LNG.N and New Fortress Energy NFE.O in case of any retaliatory actions.
TRUMP-RELATED STOCKS: Trump Media & Technology Group DJT.O, in which Trump owns a majority stake, software firm Phunware PHUN.O and video-sharing platform Rumble RUM.O stand togain further if he wins. Both Phunware and Trump Media & Technology have doubled in October after sluggish performance in recent months.
PRISON OPERATORS: Geo Group GEO.N and CoreCivic CXW.N may benefit from Trump's re-election, on promises of a crackdown on illegal immigration and restrictions on legal immigration, which could boost demand for detention centers.
CARRIERS: Wells Fargo analysts said theproposed tariff on Chinese imports under a Trump term could hurt demand forparcel carriers FedEx FDX.N and United Parcel Service UPS.N, and forwarder C.H. Robinson Worldwide CHRW.O, which have substantial exposure to China.
SMALL-CAP STOCKS: U.S.-focused companies could benefit from business incentives and tariffs that favor domestic production. The small-cap Russell 2000 index .RUT has risen nearly 9% so far in 2024.
HARRIS BASKET
HOMEBUILDERS: Harris' pledge to build more homes and reduce costs for renters and home buyers largely through tax incentives, coupled with a benign interest-rate environment, could boost homebuilders D.R. Horton DHI.N, KB Home KBH.N, Lennar LEN.N, PulteGroup PHM.N, Zillow Group ZG.O and Toll Brothers TOL.N.
HEALTHCARE: The sector has been a key focus for the Harris campaign.
She has pledged to cut healthcare costs by implementing caps on prescription drug prices, such as limiting insulin prices to $35. This could weigh on profit margins for pharmaceutical giants such as Eli Lilly LLY.N, Merck MRK.N, and Pfizer PFE.N.
Andrew Wells, CIO of SanJac Alpha, however, expects healthcareinsurers such as Humana HUM.N and UnitedHealth Group UNH.N to likely benefit from expanded coverage under a Harris presidency.
CORPORATE TAXES: Harris' proposal to tax corporations and the wealthy includes a 28% corporate tax rate and that could help the U.S. deficit.
According to Stock Analysis, Microsoft MSFT.O, Apple AAPL.O, and Alphabet GOOGL.O were the threefirms shouldering the highest income taxes over the past 12 months, collectively amounting to$67.73 billion.
"It is highly unlikely to see a blue wave, but if that happens, the market reaction could be temporarily negative due to the prospects of higher corporate tax rates," said Cetera's Klimke.
RENEWABLE STOCKS: Green energy is poised to thrive under Harris, with the potential for increased incentives and supportive policies as well as regulations on big oil firms, according to Capital.com's Hathorn.
Harris will aim to significantly reduce pollution by 2035, aligning with the Paris Agreement — a climatepact Trump hasvowed to withdraw.
Major U.S. renewable energy firms such asNextEra Energy NEE.N and hydrogen producers includingPlug Power PLUG.N and Bloom Energy BE.N could also benefit.
Reporting by Ankika Biswas and Pranav Kashyap in Bengaluru; Editing by Sweta Singh and Devika Syamnath
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
