Take Five: Cancel Summer?
Updates story first published on Friday, adds Trump news to theme one, China data to theme three.
LONDON, July 15 (Reuters) -Pressure on Joe Biden to step out of the U.S. presidential election race, mounting expectations of a September Fed rate cut, Q2 earnings, an ECB meeting and Britain's king unveiling the legislative programme of the new Labour Government.
Don't race off for that summer break just yet.
Here's what to expect in the week ahead for world markets from Ira Iosebashvili in New York, Yoruk Bahceli in Amsterdam, Li Gu in Shanghai, and William Schomberg and Amanda Cooper in London.
1/ BUSY, BUSY
It's a big week in the United States with politics, retail sales, the Fed and bank earnings in focus.
Inflation and higher rates have tested the resilience of households as signs of a cooling economy and inflation bolster expectations for rate cuts to start in September. Tuesday's retail sales data could show whether slowing growth is reflected in the consumer sector.
Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell speaks in Washington on Monday, while Goldman Sachs delivers its earnings results on July 15, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley the next day.
And markets have one eye on the looming U.S. presidential election with Biden facing doubts about his re-election chances. Former president Donald Trump, will be officially nominated at the four-day Republican National Convention, starting Monday after surviving an assassination attempt that has aggravated an already bitter U.S. political divide.
2/ NOTHING TO SEE?
The ECB is all but certain to keep rates steady on Thursday, a month after its first rate cut in five years. Attention is on whether policymakers say more about further rate cuts.
Euro zone inflation eased for the first time in three months in June, but rose in the dominant services sector, where it has not dropped this year.
Some policymakers felt uneasy about June's rate cut, regretting committing weeks in advance. So they're in no hurry to flag what's next and will scrutinise data out before the September meeting.
No doubt, ECB President Christine Lagarde will be quizzed about whether the bank is ready to step in and buy French and other government bonds in the event of further turmoil. That looks unlikely unless there are much bigger market swings, or serious contagion to other countries' debt.
3/ CHINA'S THIRD PLENUM
China's third plenum, a seminal event typically held every five years and originally expected late last year, kicks off on Monday.
Reforms top the agenda: they could include the most significant overhaul of the fiscal system in three decades to try to redirect income from Beijing to cash-strapped regional governments.
Data on Monday showed the economy grew slower than expected in the second quarter, as a protracted property downturn and job insecurity knocked the wind out a fragile recovery, keeping alive expectations Beijing will need to unleash more stimulus.
Deflation is a worry, and central bank efforts to support long-term bond yields could also hamper growth.
Still, investors are hopeful that new stimulus can lift market sentiment. Chinese blue chips .CSI300 have edged higher after notching up seven straight week of losses.
4/ THE KING'S SPEECH
King Charles will announce the full legislative agenda of the new government of British Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 1200 GMT on Wednesday, but investors are likely to be watching more keenly for inflation data out earlier that day.
Headline inflation eased back to the Bank of England's 2% target in May but policymakers are watching services prices most closely - they've been rising nearly 6% in annual terms.
BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill said he was unlikely to be swayed by one set of data, puncturing bets in financial markets on a rate cut as soon as the BoE's next scheduled monetary policy announcement on Aug. 1.
The latest UK jobs data on Thursday will also be key for the BoE which is worried about the strong pace of wages growth.
5/ SHARE THE LOVE
Two of Europe's STOXX 600 heavyweights - Dutch semiconductor maker ASML ASML.AS and German software group SAP SAPG.DE - release earnings in the week to come.
The influence of big tech firms on the overall market is a talking point. After all, stellar gains in U.S. Big Tech, led by AI chipmaker Nvidia NVDA.O, have skewed the overall performance picture for the S&P 500 and much rides on their results. The S&P is up 17% this year, but an equivalent equal-weight index .EWGSPC is up just 3.8%.
No doubt, market breadth is a factor in Europe too. The top 10 STOXX components make up 25% of the index, versus around 20% five years ago, LSEG data shows. But the STOXX's outperformance, up 7.8% YTD, versus its equal-weighted equivalent, up 3.8%, is narrower than its U.S. peer.
Europe's equity market may be smaller than the U.S., but the love is spread more widely.
US consumers are in focus with June retail sales due out US consumers are in focus with June retail sales due out https://reut.rs/3zwDedz
Sticky services inflation a headache for the ECB https://reut.rs/3RXbjtO
China targets GDP growth of around 5% in 2024 https://reut.rs/4cXniPQ
Headline UK inflation hits target, but pressures remain https://reut.rs/4cM3vDe
A weighty earnings season https://reut.rs/3VT9YFo
Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Graphics by Kripa Jayaram, Pasit Kongkunakornkul, and Prinz Magtulis; Additional reporting by Kevin Buckland, Editing by Barbara Lewis and Sam Holmes
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
