Shock French left election win is little solace for nervous investors
Repeats Monday's story without changes
Left-led hung parliament vs far-right one seen making little difference
French budget deficit unlikely to fall, investors say
Focus turns to formation of government
By Yoruk Bahceli and Samuel Indyk
July 8 (Reuters) - A shock election win for France's leftist alliance has reinforced wariness among investors who had already braced for the risk of political deadlock and a policy paralysis that's unlikely to improve the country's creaking public finances.
The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) alliance won the most seats in Sunday's election, but fell far short of an absolute majority, a big surprise after Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) led opinion polls.
France, at the centre of the euro project and the bloc's second biggest economy, still faces a hung parliament and taxing negotiations to form a government as markets had already anticipated - just with the left in pole position, rather than the far-right.
The risk premium, or spread, for holdingFrance's debt over Germany's DE10FR10=RR was at 65basis points on Monday, a touch lower from Friday. It remains below the 12-year highhit in June at 85 bps.
Still, that gap is not expected to tighten again rapidly with concern fixed on what France's new political climate means for its stretched public finances that have left it facing European Uniondisciplinary measures.
Debt stood at 110.6% of output in 2023.
"For any budget to be passed in the new assembly, probably at the margin some fiscal loosening is required to get a compromise," said Kevin Zhao, head of global sovereign and currency at UBS Asset Management, which manages $1.7 trillion in assets.
Market relief proved tentative on Monday. France's main CAC 40 .FCHI stocks index, down 3.7% since Macron called the election, rose as much as 0.8% on Monday then gave up all its gain.
Shares in France's three biggest lenders - BNP Paribas BNPP.PA, Societe Generale SOGN.PA and Credit Agricole CAGR.PA - which have dropped as much as 9.8% since June 9, also reversed earlier gains and were down 0.4%-1.2% at 1418 GMT.
Banks had been hard hit in the run-up to the vote on concerns that higher political uncertainty would translate into increased economic risks and fears of possible windfall taxes.
With the left more than 100 seats short of an absolute majority and President Emmanuel Macron's centrist grouping in second place, a hung parliament was still seen as the best outcome for investors in French assets, with itexpected to limit the left's spending plans and avert a potential budget-driven market crisis.
The NFP's plans include scrapping Macron's pension reform raising the minimum wage and capping the prices of key goods.
It says the costs of its programwould be offset by measures including tax increases.
But some investors had deemed an NFP absolute majority a bigger threat to markets than the RN, as the left alliance has said it doesn't plan to reduce France's high budget deficit.
"When you look at the composition of the parliament, the bar for the far-left to start doing anything market unfriendly is very, very high," said Gabriele Foa, portfolio manager at Algebris Investments, noting that the more moderate Socialists won a sizable share of the NFP seats.
Possibilities for a new government include the NFP forming a minority government, Macron peeling off Socialists and Greens from the NFP to isolate Jean-Luc Melenchon's far-left France Unbowed for a coalition with his own bloc, or a technocratic government.
NO RESPITE
Still, a hung parliament was not seen by investors as good news for France's public finances and investors expected the country's budget deficit -- at 5.5% of output last year -- to stay elevated.
Melenchon said the NFP would execute its programme, while Socialist leader Olivier Faure said Macron's pension reform must be cancelled.
S&P Global Ratings warned on Monday that France's credit rating, which it recently downgraded, would come under pressure if economic growth falls short of projections or the budget deficit cannot be reduced.
Analysts do not expect the French/German bond spread to return to the roughly 50 bps level seen before Macron called the election.
"To be able to step (back into) French debt, will mean that we have guarantees from the government that they are taking good decisions to restore the fiscal and budgetary balances," said Matthieu de Clermont, head of insurance and regulatory strategies at Allianz Global Investors.
"I'm not sure we'll get that any time soon."
Some investors said the French-German spread could widen again if uncertainty drags on, raising the cost for France to borrow on international bond markets relative to its neighbours, potentially increasing pressure on the budget.
"The biggest risk other than near-term headlines is what happens with the EDP and negotiations with the European Commission," said Schroders fund manager James Ringer, referring to the EU's budgetary discipline measures.
Investors remained cautious on French assets as they said it was too early to gauge what a new government would look like. The risk of another election in a year's time is not ruled out.
"It is probably going to take weeks, if not months, before Macron and others sort out their alliances." said Anders Persson, chief investment officer, head of global fixed income at Nuveen, which manages $1.2 trillion in assets.
He remains underweight French government bonds.
CAC 40, French banks remain below pre-election levels https://reut.rs/45STuBP
Risk premium on French debt barely moves despite shock left-wing win https://reut.rs/3VVv8mr
Reporting by Yoruk Bahceli and Samuel Indyk; editing by Dhara Ranasinghe and Toby Chopra
متعلقہ اثاثے
تازہ ترين خبريں
دستبرداری: XM Group کے ادارے ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت تک صرف عملدرآمد کی خدمت اور رسائی مہیا کرتے ہیں، کسی شخص کو ویب سائٹ پر یا اس کے ذریعے دستیاب کانٹینٹ کو دیکھنے اور/یا استعمال کرنے کی اجازت دیتا ہے، اس پر تبدیل یا توسیع کا ارادہ نہیں ہے ، اور نہ ہی یہ تبدیل ہوتا ہے یا اس پر وسعت کریں۔ اس طرح کی رسائی اور استعمال ہمیشہ مشروط ہوتا ہے: (i) شرائط و ضوابط؛ (ii) خطرہ انتباہات؛ اور (iii) مکمل دستبرداری۔ لہذا اس طرح کے مواد کو عام معلومات سے زیادہ کے طور پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے۔ خاص طور پر، براہ کرم آگاہ رہیں کہ ہماری آن لائن تجارت کی سہولت کے مندرجات نہ تو کوئی درخواست ہے، اور نہ ہی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں کوئی لین دین داخل کرنے کی پیش کش ہے۔ کسی بھی فنانشل مارکیٹ میں تجارت میں آپ کے سرمائے کے لئے ایک خاص سطح کا خطرہ ہوتا ہے۔
ہماری آن لائن تجارتی سہولت پر شائع ہونے والے تمام مٹیریل کا مقصد صرف تعلیمی/معلوماتی مقاصد کے لئے ہے، اور اس میں شامل نہیں ہے — اور نہ ہی اسے فنانشل، سرمایہ کاری ٹیکس یا تجارتی مشورے اور سفارشات؛ یا ہماری تجارتی قیمتوں کا ریکارڈ؛ یا کسی بھی فنانشل انسٹرومنٹ میں لین دین کی پیشکش؛ یا اسکے لئے مانگ؛ یا غیر متنازعہ مالی تشہیرات پر مشتمل سمجھا جانا چاہئے۔
کوئی تھرڈ پارٹی کانٹینٹ، نیز XM کے ذریعہ تیار کردہ کانٹینٹ، جیسے: راۓ، خبریں، تحقیق، تجزیہ، قیمتیں اور دیگر معلومات یا اس ویب سائٹ پر مشتمل تھرڈ پارٹی کے سائٹس کے لنکس کو "جیسے ہے" کی بنیاد پر فراہم کیا جاتا ہے، عام مارکیٹ کی تفسیر کے طور پر، اور سرمایہ کاری کے مشورے کو تشکیل نہ دیں۔ اس حد تک کہ کسی بھی کانٹینٹ کو سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیقات کے طور پر سمجھا جاتا ہے، آپ کو نوٹ کرنا اور قبول کرنا ہوگا کہ یہ کانٹینٹ سرمایہ کاری کی تحقیق کی آزادی کو فروغ دینے کے لئے ڈیزائن کردہ قانونی تقاضوں کے مطابق نہیں ہے اور تیار نہیں کیا گیا ہے، اسی طرح، اس پر غور کیا جائے گا بطور متعلقہ قوانین اور ضوابط کے تحت مارکیٹنگ مواصلات۔ براہ کرم یقینی بنائیں کہ آپ غیر آزاد سرمایہ کاری سے متعلق ہماری اطلاع کو پڑھ اور سمجھ چکے ہیں۔ مذکورہ بالا معلومات کے بارے میں تحقیق اور رسک وارننگ ، جس تک رسائی یہاں حاصل کی جا سکتی ہے۔
