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NZDUSD


XM 研究

A September Fed rate cut could lead to an easing spree during end-2024

Market prices in at least two rate cuts from Fed ECB, BoE expected to follow suit despite divergent economic conditions SNB and BoC could ease further; RBNZ possibly close to a summer rate cut BoJ and RBA could surprise with rate hikes during 2024 We are halfway into 2024 and the countdown for this year’s key event, the US presidential election, has already started.
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Week Ahead – ECB set to hold rates, plethora of data on the way

ECB is not expected to cut in July but will it signal one for next meeting? Retail sales will be the main highlight in the United States UK CPI report will be vital for BoE’s August decision China GDP data to kickstart busy week ECB meets amid sticky inflation The European Central Bank concludes its two-day policy meeting on Thursday but no change in interest rates is anticipated after trimming them by 25 basis points at last month’s gathering.
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Market Comment – Wounded dollar awaits inflation numbers

Powell’s testimony dents the dollar US CPI data could deepen the wounds Pound gains as BoE’s Pill dampens August cut bets Wall Street at new highs, gold gains as well Dollar softens ahead of CPI data The US dollar drifted south against most of its major peers on Wednesday, gaining some ground only against the yen, the franc, and the kiwi.
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Market Comment – Stocks undaunted by Powell’s mixed tone

US stocks rally continues after Chairman Powell’s comments French developments and ECB doves keep euro in check China reacts to bond market rally, but real issues persist Kiwi under pressure as RNBZ turns dovish US stocks rally despite Powell’s lack of dovish shift Fed Chairman Powell kept the cards close to his chest regarding the timing of the much-expected rate cut at yesterday’s Senate testimony, but he managed to satisfy the Fed doves by stating that considerable
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD tumbles after RBNZ’s decision

NZDUSD finds support at 200-day SMA Prices have been heading lower over the last month Stochastics and RSI keep downside move NZDUSD is posting notable losses after the RBNZ’s policy decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.5%. The pair is pausing its decline near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6070 and the short-term ascending trend line.
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Weekly Technical Outlook – USDJPY, GBPUSD, NZDUSD

USDJPY faces minor injuries after higher US jobless rate; Powell's testimony next on the agenda GBPUSD surprasses key obstacle as UK gets new government; monthly GDP data on the agenda NZDUSD waits for RBNZ rate decision; bullish outlook above 0.6188-0.6200   Fed chairman to testify on economy --> USDJPY US employment increased at a surprisingly solid pace of 206k on Friday, beating analysts’ forecasts of 190k jobs, but a faster-than-expected rise in the unemplo
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Spotlight on kiwi as RBNZ decides on rates next week – Preview

Interest rates expected to hold stable at a 15-year high of 5.5% NZ inflation is still problematic; will the RBNZ talk about a rate hike again? NZDUSD bulls have some work to do; must surpass 0.6188-0.6200 to gain more fuel   Kiwi has poor performance  The New Zealand dollar has faced difficulties this year in its exchange rate with other major currencies.
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Week Ahead – Round two of French elections, Powell testimony and US CPI

French parties race to block Le Pen’s RN Powell testifies before Senate Banking Committee US CPI data to shake Fed rate cut bets RBNZ to leave OCR untouched, focus on language   Euro traders keep gaze locked on French election Traders will be sitting on the edge of their seats on Sunday, in anticipation of Monday’s open and what market impact the second round of the French election will have.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD meets support at 38.2% Fibo

NZDUSD is in a steady decline since early June Completion of golden cross fails to trigger a recovery Oscillators are tilted to the bearish side NZDUSD had been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, surging to a six-month high of 0.6220 in June. However, the pair has come under severe selling pressure since then, with the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) preventing further declines for now.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD struggles to fall beneath 200-day SMA

NZDUSD holds in downside move after pullback off 3-month high Momentum oscillators head south NZDUSD is battling with the 50- and the 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) in the daily chart, holding slightly below the previous bottom of 0.6080. Technically, the RSI indicator is falling from the 50 level and is pointing down, while the MACD is flirting with the zero level.
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Week Ahead – French and UK elections on the horizon, US jobs report eyed too

France and UK go to the polls; will elections bring chaos or order? US payrolls report for June awaited as Fed hawks don’t budge Eurozone CPI, Fed minutes and ECB forum also on investors’ radar Macron’s gamble set to backfire Political risks came back to haunt the euro in June as the resurgence in popularity for far-right parties sparked jitters in financial markets.
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Market Comment – Core PCE in focus ahead of French elections

Dollar gains after first presidential debate Focus today turns to core PCE inflation Yen slides, intervention risks rise French citizens head to the ballots on Sunday Trump election win bets support dollar The US dollar traded slightly lower against most of its major peers on Thursday, extending gains only against the yen and the franc.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD erases GDP-led pickup

NZDUSD rises temporarily after slight GDP growth surprise Bulls remain capped below 20-SMA; key support at 0.6085-0.6095   Early Thursday data revealed that the New Zealand economy experienced slightly faster growth than anticipated in Q1. However, NZDUSD rose only a few pips to 0.6164, which were swiftly erased. The bears couldn’t push past the 20-day SMA at 0.6145 for the fourth consecutive day, leading to worries that the pause in the short-term uptrend could lead to a downwa
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Week Ahead – RBA, SNB and BoE next to decide, CPI and PMI data also on tap

It will be another central-bank-heavy week with the RBA, SNB and BoE None are expected to cut but there’s room for surprises Retail sales will be the highlight in the United States Plenty of other data also on the way, including flash PMIs and UK CPI RBA is in a pickle The Reserve Bank of Australia will keep the central bank theme going on Tuesday when it meets for its June policy decision.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD recoups post-NFP slide

NZDUSD surges to its highest since March 8 But undergoes a setback after strong NFP report Oscillators ease but remain in positive zones NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April, posting a fresh three-month high last week. Although the pair came under severe selling pressure on Friday due to a stronger-than-expected NFP report, it has been trying to erase its losses in the past couple of sessions.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD erases today’s jump at 3-month peak

NZDUSD holds above steep rising line RSI and MACD show contradicting signals NZDUSD posted a bullish spike earlier today towards a new three-month high around 0.6215. The pair is creating a steep upside tendency in the short-term timeframe after the strong pullback at the five-month low of 0.5850. Technically, the momentum oscillators are showing some mixed signs.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD extends recovery to fresh highs

NZDUSD posts an almost 3-month high on Tuesday But the risk of an impending correction increases Oscillators approach overbought conditions NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend following its 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April. On Tuesday, the pair stormed to its highest level since March 8 before sustaining minor losses probably due to some profit taking.
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Technical Analysis – NZDUSD pauses advance at 61.8% Fibonacci

NZDUSD stages a solid recovery from its 2024 lows Posts a two-month high and challenges 61.8% Fibo Oscillators point to persistent bullish pressures   NZDUSD has been in an aggressive uptrend after recording a 2024 bottom of 0.5851 in mid-April. The positive short-term picture is reinforced by the fact that the pair broke above both its 50- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs), while the momentum indicators are also heavily tilted to the upside.
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Week Ahead – US PCE inflation and Eurozone CPI data enter the spotlight

Dollar traders lock gaze on core PCE index Eurozone CPIs in focus as June cut looms Tokyo CPIs may complicate BoJ’s policy plans Aussie awaits Australian CPIs and Chinese PMIs   Will PCE data break the “higher for longer” mantra? The US dollar stabilized this week, recovering a small portion of the losses it posted after the CPI data revealed that US inflation resumed its downtrend in April.
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Market Comment – Dollar under pressure as Fed speakers multiply

FOMC minutes in the spotlight today Mixed UK CPI probably keeps the door closed to a June move RBNZ surprises with its hawkishness; kiwi benefits Nvidia reports after the US market close Dollar remains on the back foot The quieter data calendar has turned the market’s attention to the plethora of Fed speakers eager to express their opinions ahead of the next blackout period.
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