GBPCHF sees selling pressure intensify after drop below 50-day SMA and cloud Will the 20-day SMA halt the decline? Momentum indicators aren’t very encouraging GBPCHF is extending its retreat from the January peak above 1.1050, with the slide accelerating after breaching both the Ichimoku cloud bottom as well as the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

GBPCHF has been surging in the short term as its positive momentum strengthened after the price surpassed the 50-day simple moving average (SMA). However, this recent rally has not been sufficient to reverse its medium-term downtrend. The pair is likely to continue its ongoing ascent, with the immediate bias looking bullish. The short-term oscillators further reinforce this view, as the MACD histogram is above both zero and its red signal line, while the RSI is sloping upwards in the overbough

Dollar remains muted after Friday’s pullback The delta wave uncertainty forced Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to play it safe during Friday’s Jackson Hole symposium, setting no timeline and expressing no rush for winding down stimulus despite flagging that bond tapering will start this year. His dovish remarks sent the dollar index lower but within the 92.00 territory as the euro and the pound found the chance to steal some ground on the news.

There’s been a massive shift within the central bank world lately. Some have taken baby steps towards exiting cheap money and ultimately raising interest rates, but others have not. We seem to be entering a period where the economies that will be raising rates might see their currencies appreciate against those that won’t. The dollar, pound, kiwi, and loonie could shine, whereas the yen, franc, and euro may fall behind.  Fuel on the fire  One year after the world economy almost collapsed

The calm after the rally Investors will have to wait for the next Fed policy meeting and for progress in Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus plans before they adjust their rising inflationary expectations. For now, the FOMC meeting minutes, which were released late on Wednesday, have ensured markets it will take some time before inflation and the unemployment rate push the Fed to remove some stimulus.

GBPCHF has made a decisive break above the sideways range that had been in place since late March of 2020 after several days of flirting with the range top. Having raced above 1.23 to reach the highest in 11 months today, the pair could now have its sights on the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2019 – March 2020 downtrend, which lies at 1.2468. Further gains could drive prices towards the 78.6% Fibonacci of 1.2837, which has been a heavily contested area in the past and may be dif

GBPCHF is facing downside pressure as it struggles to hold above the mid-Bollinger band around 1.1915. The pair has been stuck in a neutral phase since late March after it partially recovered from its all-time low of 1.1109. Further declines are likely in the short term as the RSI has dipped just below the 50 neutral level, while the MACD is slightly negative.

GBPCHF pivoted at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) preserving the horizontal structure and reinforcing its confines of 1.1628 and 1.2257. The 50- and 100-day SMAs have adopted a relatively neutral bearing, which may be aiding the directionless market. Nonetheless, the short-term oscillators mirror the recent weakness in the price, suggesting growing negative momentum.

GBPCHF seems to have found a foothold on the 1.1760 level, that being the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the down leg from 1.2819 to the all-time low of 1.1109. The recent appreciation in price appears to have backing from the short-term oscillators, which could extend it towards the downward sloping 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). The MACD, in the negative region, has moved above its red trigger line, while the RSI has pushed over the 50 threshold.

GBPCHF’s recent pullback seems to be struggling to decisively close above the area from the 1.1671 inside swing low - from August 2019 - to the fresh highs of 1.1717, after plotting an all-time low of 1.1109. The short-term oscillators reflect increasing positive momentum for now. The MACD, in the positive zone, has improved slightly above its red trigger line, while the rising RSI is eyeing the 70 level.

GBPCHF slumped below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) which proved an easy obstacle this time but the former strong support region around 1.2190 from the 2016-2017 period came to the rescue. Although the RSI, Stochastics and Bollinger bands reflect oversold conditions, the indicators have yet to reverse north, keeping the short-term bias negative.

GBPCHF has been consolidating since reaching a 7-month peak of 1.3307 in December, forming a ceiling around 1.2850 and a floor around 1.2530 in a sideways range. It’s worth pointing out though, that price action has recently moved below the Ichimoku cloud, suggesting that the risk of a breakout below the range is greater than that of an upside break.