Brazil central bank to hike rates by 25 basis points on Sept 18
reuters://realtime/verb=Open/url=cpurl%3A%2F%2Fapps.cp.%2FApps%2Fcb-polls%3FRIC%3DBRCBMP%253DECI poll data
By Gabriel Burin
BUENOS AIRES, Sept 13 (Reuters) -Brazil's central bank will raise its benchmark rate by 25 points next Wednesday at what will likely be the start of a short tightening campaign to quash persistent inflationary trends, moving the opposite way to its peers, a Reuters poll found.
The move would unwind a 25 basis-point cut implemented in May, the last in a series of reductions that brought the Selic rate to 10.50% from a cycle-high of 13.75%. In June and July, the rate was kept unchanged at 10.50%.
Members of the bank's monetary policy committee, known as Copom, will probably reinforce their concern about inflation staying above target amid worsening expectations for the direction of consumer prices.
The forecast hike by Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) would come on the same day that the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to launch a series of rate cuts with a first reduction of 25 basis points.
That would take the BCB's Selic up 25 basis points to 10.75% on Sept. 18, according to 36 of 40 economists polled Sept. 9-12. Three saw no change, and one saw a bigger 50 basis-point hike.
"Given a highly uncertain local scenario, even taking into account an improvement of the external environment, there is still a greater probability of Copom starting a tightening cycle," Guide Investimentos economists wrote in a report.
"The market impact of the central bank's most recent communications leads us to believe the most efficient way to combat high inflation expectations is to act beforehand so it can end early" any tightening drive.
Yield curve prices have indicated strong chances of potential hikes since BCB chief Roberto Campos Neto mentioned a possible gradual adjustment last month. Even President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, usually opposed to rate hikes, signalled he may support such an approach at some future point.
Inflation deviated further from the official target recently driven by rising prices in services related to a firm job market. Despite some relief last month, the trajectory remains troubling, with energy costs growing as hydroelectric output falls due to dry weather conditions.
Twenty-seven of 30 respondents who answered an extra question on what the central bank's next move would be after this month's decision forecast another hike at November's meeting.
The three who saw rates staying unchanged on Sept. 18 expected a later cut.
In response to a question on the size of move they expected after next week, the calls of 25 respondents expecting both a 25 basis-point increase on Sept. 18 and a hike two months later were narrowly split, with 13 forecasting a 50 basis-point move and 12 an extra quarter percentage-point.
The central bank will continue adjusting the Selic to a cycle-high of 11.50% in the first quarter of 2025, followed by the start of an easing drive, the survey suggested.
(Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll)
Reporting and polling by Gabriel Burin in Buenos Aires; Editing by Hugh Lawson
免責聲明: XM Group提供線上交易平台的登入和執行服務，允許個人查看和/或使用網站所提供的內容，但不進行任何更改或擴展其服務和訪問權限，並受以下條款與條例約束：（i）條款與條例；（ii）風險提示；（iii）完全免責聲明。網站內部所提供的所有資訊，僅限於一般資訊用途。請注意，我們所有的線上交易平台內容並不構成，也不被視為進入金融市場交易的邀約或邀請 。金融市場交易會對您的投資帶來重大風險。
所有缐上交易平台所發佈的資料，僅適用於教育/資訊類用途，不包含也不應被視爲適用於金融、投資稅或交易相關諮詢和建議，或是交易價格紀錄，或是任何金融商品或非應邀途徑的金融相關優惠的交易邀約或邀請。
本網站的所有XM和第三方所提供的内容，包括意見、新聞、研究、分析、價格其他資訊和第三方網站鏈接，皆爲‘按原狀’，並作爲一般市場評論所提供，而非投資建議。請理解和接受，所有被歸類為投資研究範圍的相關内容，並非爲了促進投資研究獨立性，而根據法律要求所編寫，而是被視爲符合營銷傳播相關法律與法規所編寫的内容。請確保您已詳讀並完全理解我們的非獨立投資研究提示和風險提示資訊，相關詳情請點擊 這裡查看。
