Zloty slips as Polish inflation rises less than expected
WARSAW, July 31 (Reuters) -The zloty eased on Wednesday, as data showed inflation in Poland rising less than expected in July, though according to analysts the prospects were not higher for interest rate cuts.
Poland's CPI accelerated to 4.2% on the year in July from 2.6% a month earlier, according to Wednesday's flash estimate, mainly due to the effect of the government partially withdrawing measures aimed at keeping down energy prices.
Analysts in a Reuters poll had expected July inflation to rise 4.4% on the year.
Earlier this month, the National Bank of Poland (NBP), which aims for inflation at 2.5% with a tolerance band of plus or minus 1 percentage point, kept Poland's main interest rate unchanged for a ninth month and governor Adam Glapinski said that elevated inflation spelled steady rates till 2026.
By 0950, the Polish zloty EURPLN= weakened 0.1% against the euro to 4.2950, near the lower end of its narrow range since mid-July, but remains Central Europe's best performing currency this year, gaining over 1%.
"The market might think that a lower (than expected) inflation reading brings interest rate cuts closer, but that will not be the case," Ipopema Securities analyst Marcin Sulewski said.
"Inflation in July was lower than expected, but it will rise in the coming months... As NBP governor Glapinski says, if inflation is rising, you cannot lower interest rates," Sulewski added.
The Hungarian forint EURHUF= eased 0.1% to 395.50 per euro. It continued to slip after the worse-than-expected economic output reading on Tuesday, according to a Budapest-based currency trader.
Weak foreign demand held back Hungary's economy in the second quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) falling on a quarterly basis for the first time in more than a year.
The Hungarian currency is the region's weakest performer this year, shedding 3% against the euro.
The Czech crown EURCZK= which has also lost 3% to the euro this year, eased 0.1% to 25.4460 per euro on Wednesday in the run-up to Thursday's expected interest rate cut by the Czech National Bank (CNB).
The CNB is widely expected to slow the pace of easing on Thursday, with all analysts in a Reuters poll forecasting a 25-basis point cut, as it opts for caution with inflation risks still in view and the crown weaker than expected.
"While market analysts are unanimously expecting reduction in the pace of rate cuts to 25bp per step, the market may still see some risk that the Czech central bank could repeat a rate cut by 50bp," chief economist at Generali Investments CEE Radomir Jac said.
"Weakening of the Czech crown, seen in the past weeks, was to a large extent related to a sharper than expected rate cut delivered by the CNB at the end of June."
Last month, the CNB cut its key rate by 50 basis points, on the sharper end of expectations, but signalled a likely slowdown in the pace of easing amid lingering inflation pressures.
Jac added that today's weakening of the crown was in line with that of its regional peers.
CEE MARKETS | SNAPSHOT | AT 1151 CET | |||
CURRENCIES | |||||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
trade | close | change | in 2024 | ||
Czech crown | EURCZK= | 25.4460 | 25.4310 | -0.06% | -2.93% |
Hungary forint | EURHUF= | 395.5000 | 395.2700 | -0.06% | -3.11% |
Polish zloty | EURPLN= | 4.2950 | 4.2910 | -0.09% | +1.15% |
Romanian leu | EURRON= | 4.9753 | 4.9763 | +0.02% | -0.02% |
Serbian dinar | EURRSD= | 116.9800 | 117.0800 | +0.09% | +0.23% |
Note: daily change | calculated from | 1800 CET | |||
Latest | Previous | Daily | Change | ||
close | change | in 2024 | |||
Prague | .PX | 1608.76 | 1598.7400 | +0.63% | +13.77% |
Budapest | .BUX | 73855.86 | 73475.88 | +0.52% | +21.83% |
Warsaw | .WIG20 | 2419.55 | 2384.77 | +1.46% | +3.27% |
Bucharest | .BETI | 18623.41 | 18534.75 | +0.48% | +21.16% |
Spread | Daily | ||||
vs Bund | change in | ||||
Czech Republic | spread | ||||
2-year | CZ2YT=RR | 3.5560 | 0.0020 | +102bps | +2bps |
5-year | CZ5YT=RR | 3.5420 | -0.0390 | +129bps | -3bps |
10-year | CZ10YT=RR | 3.7200 | 0.0070 | +139bps | +2bps |
Poland | |||||
2-year | PL2YT=RR | 4.9990 | -0.0080 | +246bps | +1bps |
5-year | PL5YT=RR | 5.3220 | -0.1140 | +307bps | -10bps |
10-year | PL10YT=RR | 5.5160 | -0.0610 | +319bps | -5bps |
FORWARD | |||||
3x6 | 6x9 | 9x12 | 3M interbank | ||
Czech Rep | CZKFRAPRIBOR= | 4.00 | 3.63 | 3.30 | 4.53 |
Hungary | HUFFRABUBOR= | 6.12 | 5.76 | 5.36 | 6.56 |
Poland | PLNFRAWIBOR= | 5.80 | 5.66 | 5.31 | 5.86 |
Note: FRA quotes | are for ask prices | ||||
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Reporting by Karol Badohal in Warsaw, Boldizsar Gyori in Budapest; Editing by Bernadette Baum
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