Week Ahead-Elections, US jobs data, central banks in focus
June 30 (Reuters) -Elections in France and the UK, a busy data schedule culminating in U.S. payrolls, and speeches from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will produce an interesting and probably volatile start to July.
Powell and Lagarde lead a line-up of key speakers at the ECB Forum on Central Banking. Other ECB officials will also feature, along with New York Fed President John Williams.
The U.S. data calendar begins with ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, then JOLTS job openings on Tuesday, ADP employment, factory orders, ISM services PMI and the June 11-12 Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday. Thursday is a holiday and non-farm payrolls are due on Friday, with a Reuters poll predicting 195,000headline jobs created in June and a steady unemployment rate of 4%.
The first round of France'slegislative election may create volatility on Monday, with a swing to the left most likely to spook markets. Europe's data highlights are final June PMIs, flash HICP, May unemployment and retail sales, German CPI and industrial production.
The UK will vote on Thursday with the opposition Labour Party expected to win, as they lead by about 20 points in the polls. There should be a muted reaction to a Labour government. The only data of note is final June PMIs.
Japan's Q2 Tankan survey is the only significant release in a quiet week for data, though with USD/JPY above 160.00 the focus will be on potential FX intervention.
China's June Caixin manufacturing and services PMIs will be in focus following Sunday'sweak official NBS readings. Factory activity is expected to slow to 51.2 after rising to 51.7 in May, the fastest in about two years.
The Reserve Bank of Australia's June meeting minutes will be scrutinized on Tuesday after the central bank's warning on upside inflation risks was borne out by consumer prices jumping to a six-month high in May. Retail sales and trade data are also due.
Canada has trade, unemployment and PMIs while business confidence is released in New Zealand.
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Krishna Kumar and Andrew Spencer are Reuters market analysts. The views expressed are their own. Editing by Sonali Desai
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